Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Archive

Every game day, with the model's last pre-kick numbers, the finals, and how the flags graded.

DayGamesFlag record
Thursday, October 22, 20261live 0–1–0 (-1.00 u)
Monday, October 19, 20261live 1–1–0 (+0.27 u)
Sunday, October 18, 202612live 4–5–0 (-1.26 u)
Saturday, October 17, 202648paper 24–17–0 (+7.52 u)
Friday, October 16, 20263paper 1–1–0 (+0.27 u)
Thursday, October 15, 20264paper 0–2–0 (-2.00 u)
Wednesday, October 14, 20262paper 0–2–0 (-2.00 u)
Tuesday, October 13, 20262—
Monday, October 12, 20261—
Sunday, October 11, 202613live 4–6–0 (-2.13 u)
Saturday, October 10, 202645paper 18–14–0 (+5.76 u)
Friday, October 9, 20265paper 2–1–0 (+1.17 u)
Thursday, October 8, 20265live 2–0–0 (+2.66 u) · paper 2–1–0 (+0.71 u)
Wednesday, October 7, 20262paper 1–1–0 (-0.04 u)
Tuesday, October 6, 20261—
Monday, October 5, 20261—
Sunday, October 4, 202614live 14–5–0 (+8.97 u)
Saturday, October 3, 202650paper 22–23–0 (+0.62 u)
Friday, October 2, 20263paper 2–2–0 (-0.33 u)
Thursday, October 1, 20263live 1–0–0 (+1.00 u)
Monday, September 28, 20261live 1–0–0 (+0.89 u)
Sunday, September 27, 202614live 7–5–0 (+1.03 u)
Saturday, September 26, 202652paper 16–20–0 (-1.06 u)
Friday, September 25, 20264paper 4–3–0 (+2.22 u)
Thursday, September 24, 20262live 0–2–0 (-2.00 u) · paper 1–0–0 (+1.94 u)
Monday, September 21, 20261live 0–1–0 (-1.00 u)
Sunday, September 20, 202614live 3–6–0 (-3.50 u)
Saturday, September 19, 202655paper 9–14–0 (-3.48 u)
Friday, September 18, 20262—
Thursday, September 17, 20262—
Monday, September 14, 20261live 1–1–0 (+0.33 u)
Sunday, September 13, 202613live 2–7–0 (-5.02 u)
Saturday, September 12, 202648paper 19–17–1 (+2.43 u)
Friday, September 11, 20262paper 0–1–0 (-1.00 u)
Thursday, September 10, 20261—
Wednesday, September 9, 20261—
Monday, September 7, 20261—
Sunday, September 6, 20263paper 0–1–0 (-1.00 u)
Saturday, September 5, 202630paper 6–2–0 (+4.59 u)
Friday, September 4, 20265paper 1–0–0 (+1.27 u)