Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
13 games · flags: live 4–6–0 (-2.13 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, October 11 · Week 5 · 13 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 10/11 6:30 AM | Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars | priceA Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @46¢ ✓ | 17–19 | JAC -5.5 | JAC -8.0 | -2.5 | JAC -4.0 → JAC -8.0 against | JAC -7.5 @51¢ · PHI +9.5 @54¢ | 66% | 21–27 | 48 | 42 | +5.4 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers | — | 7–31 | CHI -0.8 | CHI -1.0 | +0.2 | CHI -2.5 → CHI -1.0 with us | GB +1.5 @51¢ · CHI -1.5 @50¢ | 48% | 22–22 | 44 | 47 | -3.0 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings @ New Orleans Saints | — | 23–13 | MIN -3.2 | MIN -2.0 | -1.2 | flat | NO +2.5 @51¢ · MIN -1.5 @53¢ | 41% | 23–20 | 44 | 42 | +1.8 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers | modelB Indianapolis Colts +2.5 @50¢ ✗ | 22–34 | IND -1.7 | PIT -3.0 | -4.7 | PIT -2.0 → PIT -3.0 against | PIT -2.5 @55¢ · IND +3.5 @57¢ | 45% | 26–25 | 51 | 44 | +7.8 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Las Vegas Raiders @ New England Patriots | — | 17–45 | NE -2.1 | NE -3.5 | -1.4 | flat | NE -3.5 @49¢ · LV +3.5 @52¢ | 56% | 21–23 | 43 | 45 | -1.7 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ New York Jets | — | 12–17 | NYJ -1.0 | NYJ -2.5 | -1.5 | NYJ -1.5 → NYJ -2.5 against | NYJ -2.5 @51¢ · CLE +2.5 @50¢ | 53% | 21–22 | 42 | 40 | +2.4 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins | modelB Miami Dolphins +7.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Miami Dolphins +6.5 @46¢ ✗ | 31–24 | CIN -2.3 | CIN -6.5 | +4.2 | CIN -7.0 → CIN -6.5 with us | MIA +6.5 @47¢ · CIN -6.5 @54¢ | 43% | 24–21 | 45 | 44 | +1.5 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans | modelA Tennessee Titans +6.5 @50¢ ✗priceB Tennessee Titans +6.5 @47¢ ✗ | 26–3 | HOU -1.9 | HOU -6.5 | +4.6 | flat | TEN +6.5 @50¢ · HOU -6.5 @51¢ | 44% | 22–20 | 42 | 38 | +4.2 | |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | New York Giants @ Washington Commanders | modelA New York Giants +3.5 @53¢ ✓ | 27–27 | NYG -0.2 | WAS -3.5 | -3.8 | flat | WAS -3.5 @48¢ · NYG +3.5 @53¢ | 49% | 24–24 | 48 | 42 | +5.7 | |
| Sun 10/11 1:05 PM | Denver Broncos @ Los Angeles Chargers | modelB Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 @52¢ ✗ | 23–17 | DEN -0.9 | DEN -3.5 | +2.6 | flat | LAC +3.5 @51¢ · DEN -3.5 @50¢ | 47% | 22–21 | 42 | 42 | +0.8 | |
| Sun 10/11 1:25 PM | San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks | — | 32–29 | SEA -2.9 | SEA -3.5 | -0.6 | SEA -3.0 → SEA -3.5 against | SEA -3.5 @47¢ · SF +3.5 @54¢ | 58% | 22–25 | 47 | 46 | +1.1 | |
| Sun 10/11 1:25 PM | Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals | modelA Arizona Cardinals +5.5 @53¢ ✗ | 45–21 | ARI -0.1 | DET -5.5 | +5.6 | DET -5.0 → DET -5.5 against | ARI +5.5 @51¢ · DET -5.5 @50¢ | 50% | 26–26 | 52 | 54 | -2.9 | |
| Sun 10/11 5:20 PM | Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons | modelA Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @52¢ ✓ | 30–23 | BAL -0.8 | ATL -3.5 | -4.3 | flat | ATL -3.5 @48¢ · BAL +3.5 @53¢ | 48% | 23–23 | 46 | 43 | +3.2 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.