Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
Started Sat 9/5 1:00 PM PT · $3,000 · $100 flat on every live Tier-A play
| Kick (PT) | Sport | Play | System | Venue | Result | Final | Stake | Fee | P/L | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 10/19 5:15 PM | NFL | Washington Commanders +6.5 @44¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 17–23 | $100 | $3.92 | +123.35 | $3,625.50 |
| Sun 10/18 1:25 PM | NFL | Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 @51¢ | price | kalshi | LOSS | 6–22 | $100 | $3.43 | -103.43 | $3,502.14 |
| Sun 10/18 1:05 PM | NFL | Arizona Cardinals +13.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 18–16 | $100 | $3.29 | +85.39 | $3,605.57 |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | NFL | New York Giants +1.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | LOSS | 27–34 | $100 | $3.29 | -103.29 | $3,520.19 |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 @49¢ | model | kalshi | LOSS | 19–26 | $100 | $3.57 | -103.57 | $3,623.48 |
| Sun 10/11 5:20 PM | NFL | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 @52¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 30–23 | $100 | $3.36 | +88.95 | $3,727.05 |
| Sun 10/11 1:25 PM | NFL | Arizona Cardinals +5.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | LOSS | 21–45 | $100 | $3.29 | -103.29 | $3,638.10 |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | NFL | Miami Dolphins +6.5 @46¢ | price | kalshi | LOSS | 24–31 | $100 | $3.78 | -103.78 | $3,741.39 |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | NFL | New York Giants +3.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 27–27 | $100 | $3.29 | +85.39 | $3,845.17 |
| Sun 10/11 10:00 AM | NFL | Tennessee Titans +6.5 @50¢ | model | kalshi | LOSS | 3–26 | $100 | $3.50 | -103.50 | $3,759.78 |
| Sun 10/11 6:30 AM | NFL | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @46¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 17–19 | $100 | $3.78 | +113.61 | $3,863.28 |
| Thu 10/8 5:15 PM | NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 @36¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 24–16 | $100 | $4.48 | +173.30 | $3,749.67 |
| Sun 10/4 5:20 PM | NFL | Carolina Panthers +2.5 @42¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 32–26 | $100 | $4.06 | +134.04 | $3,576.37 |
| Sun 10/4 1:25 PM | NFL | Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 @46¢ | price | kalshi | LOSS | 23–30 | $100 | $3.78 | -103.78 | $3,442.33 |
| Sun 10/4 1:25 PM | NFL | Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 @51¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 27–30 | $100 | $3.43 | +92.65 | $3,546.11 |
| Sun 10/4 1:05 PM | NFL | Miami Dolphins +9.5 @45¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 10–15 | $100 | $3.85 | +118.37 | $3,453.47 |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | NFL | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 14–17 | $100 | $3.29 | +85.39 | $3,335.09 |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | NFL | New York Giants +2.5 @54¢ | price | kalshi | WIN | 36–24 | $100 | $3.22 | +81.97 | $3,249.70 |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @51¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 22–17 | $100 | $3.43 | +92.65 | $3,167.74 |
| Mon 9/28 5:15 PM | NFL | Chicago Bears +3.5 @53¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 27–7 | $100 | $3.29 | +85.39 | $3,075.09 |
| Sun 9/27 10:00 AM | NFL | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @58¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 19–17 | $100 | $2.94 | +69.47 | $2,989.70 |
| Sun 9/27 10:00 AM | NFL | New York Jets +7.5 @59¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 24–31 | $100 | $2.87 | +66.62 | $2,920.23 |
| Thu 9/24 5:15 PM | NFL | Green Bay Packers -7.5 @42¢ | price | kalshi | LOSS | 14–35 | $100 | $4.06 | -104.06 | $2,853.61 |
| Mon 9/21 5:15 PM | NFL | New York Giants +7.0 | model | pinnacle | LOSS | 6–28 | $100 | $0.00 | -100.00 | $2,957.67 |
| Sun 9/20 1:05 PM | NFL | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @47¢ | model | kalshi | LOSS | 13–20 | $100 | $3.71 | -103.71 | $3,057.67 |
| Sun 9/20 1:05 PM | NFL | Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 @57¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 26–14 | $100 | $3.01 | +72.43 | $3,161.38 |
| Sun 9/20 10:00 AM | NFL | Minnesota Vikings +5.5 @52¢ | model | kalshi | WIN | 9–3 | $100 | $3.36 | +88.95 | $3,088.95 |
Simulated flat-stake bankroll: $100 on every live Tier-A play, starting from $3,000. Kalshi plays pay out at the ask price captured when flagged; sharp-book plays are graded at -110. Paper plays and Tier-B leans are never counted. Fees are estimated, not pulled from the exchange.