Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day.
Each game day the model projects a score for every FBS and NFL game from team statistics, then compares that projection to the sharpest available line (Pinnacle) and to Kalshi's prices. Two views are blended: a yards-per-point model (team points = opponent's yards allowed ÷ the team's offensive yards per point) and an opponent-adjusted power rating fit to game margins and shrunk toward a preseason prior. The blend weights are refit from graded results as the season goes on.
A play is flagged only when the model disagrees with the sharp line by a threshold, or when its win probability beats the Kalshi price by a margin. Every flag is graded against the final score and the closing line, and the running record is published here, wins and losses alike.