Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Saturday, September 12, 2026

48 games · flags: paper 19–17–1 (+2.43 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Sat Sep 12

Kick (PT)	Matchup	Flags	Final	Model line	Pinnacle line	Δ (home)	Line move	Kalshi spread (home · away)	Home win%	Model score	Model total	Pinnacle total	Δ total
Saturday, September 12 · Week 3 · 48 games
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Washington State Cougars @ Kansas State Wildcats	modelB Kansas State Wildcats -17.5 @54¢ ✓	7–34	Kansas State -18.2	Kansas State -17.5	+0.7	Kansas State -18.5 → Kansas State -17.5 against	Kansas State -17.5 @52¢ · Washington State +17.5 @49¢	86%	15–33	49	50	-0.9
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Purdue Boilermakers	modelB Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 @53¢ ✓	38–36	Purdue -2.7	Wake Forest -3.0	+5.7	Wake Forest -4.0 → Wake Forest -3.0 with us	Purdue +3.5 @55¢ · Wake Forest -2.5 @54¢	56%	24–26	50	50	+0.2
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Appalachian State Mountaineers @ East Carolina Pirates	modelA Appalachian State Mountaineers +9.5 @54¢ ✓	27–24	East Carolina -0.4	East Carolina -6.5	-6.1	East Carolina -9.5 → East Carolina -6.5 with us	East Carolina -6.5 @51¢ · App State +6.5 @50¢	51%	27–28	55	56	-0.3
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	South Florida Bulls @ Army Black Knights	modelB Army Black Knights -3.5 @51¢ ✗priceB Army Black Knights -7.5 @35¢ ✗	28–24	Army -8.3	Army -3.5	+4.8	flat	Army -3.5 @48¢ · South Florida +3.5 @53¢	69%	21–30	51	46	+5.6
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Oklahoma Sooners @ Michigan Wolverines	modelB Oklahoma Sooners -5.5 @51¢ ✗priceB Michigan Wolverines +2.5 @37¢ ✓priceB Oklahoma Sooners -7.5 @40¢ ✗	10–17	Oklahoma -10.4	Oklahoma -4.5	-5.9	Oklahoma -5.5 → Oklahoma -4.5 against	Michigan +4.5 @49¢ · Oklahoma -4.5 @52¢	27%	27–17	44	44	+0.1
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Arizona State Sun Devils @ Texas A&M Aggies	modelB Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 ✗	20–48	Texas A&M -17.6	Texas A&M -14.5	+3.1	Texas A&M -14.0 → Texas A&M -14.5 with us	— · —	85%	17–35	52	50	+1.7
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Old Dominion Monarchs @ Virginia Tech Hokies	modelB Virginia Tech Hokies -17.5 @52¢ ✓	21–44	Virginia Tech -21.1	Virginia Tech -19.5	+1.6	Virginia Tech -18.5 → Virginia Tech -19.5 with us	Virginia Tech -20.5 @46¢ · Old Dominion +20.5 @55¢	89%	15–36	52	48	+3.8
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Oregon Ducks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys	—	31–39	Oregon -20.4	Oregon -23.5	+3.1	Oregon -22.5 → Oregon -23.5 against	Oklahoma State +23.5 @50¢ · Oregon -23.5 @51¢	11%	35–15	50	54	-4.6
Sat 9/12 9:00 AM	Penn State Nittany Lions @ Temple Owls	modelB Temple Owls +24.5 @53¢ ✓	27–9	Penn State -23.6	Penn State -24.0	+0.4	Penn State -23.5 → Penn State -24.0 against	Temple +24.5 @52¢ · Penn State -23.5 @53¢	8%	39–15	54	51	+2.9
Sat 9/12 9:45 AM	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Georgia Bulldogs	—	20–70	Georgia -47.2	Georgia -40.0	+7.2	Georgia -39.5 → Georgia -40.0 with us	Georgia -39.5 @52¢ · Western Kentucky +39.5 @49¢	99%	3–50	53	56	-2.3
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas State Bobcats	modelB UTSA Roadrunners -1.5 @47¢ ✓	31–26	UTSA -10.9	Texas State -1.5	-12.4	UTSA -1.0 → Texas State -1.5 against	Texas State -1.5 @52¢ · UTSA +1.5 @49¢	26%	37–27	64	66	-2.0
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	California Golden Bears @ Syracuse Orange	modelB Syracuse Orange -2.5 @54¢ ✗priceB California Golden Bears +2.5 @42¢ ✓	21–18	Syracuse -10.4	Syracuse -3.5	+6.9	Syracuse -3.0 → Syracuse -3.5 with us	Syracuse -3.5 @52¢ · California +3.5 @49¢	73%	22–32	54	56	-2.4
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Utah State Aggies @ Washington Huskies	—	14–16	Washington -25.3	Washington -28.0	-2.7	Washington -26.5 → Washington -28.0 against	Washington -27.5 @51¢ · Utah State +27.5 @50¢	93%	14–40	54	56	-1.8
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Minnesota Golden Gophers	modelB Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5 @53¢ ✗	38–13	Minnesota -2.0	Mississippi State -1.0	+3.0	flat	Minnesota +1.5 @53¢ · Mississippi State -1.5 @48¢	55%	26–28	54	55	-1.4
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Rice Owls @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	—	0–52	Notre Dame -39.2	Notre Dame -44.5	-5.3	flat	Notre Dame -44.5 @52¢ · Rice +44.5 @49¢	99%	8–47	55	55	-0.2
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Alabama Crimson Tide @ Kentucky Wildcats	—	45–17	Alabama -10.2	Alabama -10.0	-0.2	Alabama -10.5 → Alabama -10.0 against	Kentucky +10.5 @53¢ · Alabama -9.5 @52¢	27%	30–20	50	48	+1.5
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Duke Blue Devils @ Illinois Fighting Illini	priceB Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 @41¢ ✗	31–27	Illinois -2.6	Illinois -6.0	-3.4	flat	Illinois -5.5 @53¢ · Duke +6.5 @53¢	56%	26–29	54	52	+2.9
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	UL Monroe Warhawks @ UAB Blazers	modelB UAB Blazers -10.5 @51¢ ✗	20–26	UAB -21.5	UAB -9.0	+12.5	UAB -10.5 → UAB -9.0 against	UAB -9.5 @51¢ · UL Monroe +9.5 @50¢	90%	18–40	58	54	+4.0
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Arizona Wildcats @ BYU Cougars	modelB BYU Cougars -7.5 @49¢ ✓	17–28	BYU -6.7	BYU -7.0	-0.3	BYU -7.5 → BYU -7.0 with us	BYU -6.5 @54¢ · Arizona +7.5 @53¢	65%	22–29	51	50	+1.3
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Maryland Terrapins @ UConn Huskies	—	38–14	Maryland -12.9	Maryland -12.5	-0.4	flat	UConn +11.5 @51¢ · Maryland -11.5 @50¢	22%	34–21	55	52	+3.0
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Michigan State Spartans	—	7–35	Michigan State -18.3	Michigan State -17.5	+0.8	Michigan State -17.0 → Michigan State -17.5 with us	Michigan State -17.5 @48¢ · Eastern Michigan +17.5 @53¢	86%	17–35	52	50	+2.3
Sat 9/12 12:30 PM	UCF Knights @ Pittsburgh Panthers	modelB UCF Knights +7.5 @51¢ ✓	7–12	Pittsburgh -10.4	Pittsburgh -7.0	+3.4	Pittsburgh -7.5 → Pittsburgh -7.0 against	Pittsburgh -6.5 @54¢ · UCF +7.5 @54¢	73%	22–32	54	56	-3.0
Sat 9/12 12:45 PM	UNLV Rebels @ North Texas Mean Green	modelB UNLV Rebels -3.5 @54¢ ✗	6–44	UNLV -12.1	UNLV -3.0	-9.1	UNLV -4.0 → UNLV -3.0 against	North Texas +3.5 @55¢ · UNLV -2.5 @55¢	24%	37–25	62	58	+3.9
Sat 9/12 1:15 PM	Delaware Blue Hens @ Vanderbilt Commodores	modelB Delaware Blue Hens +21.5 @54¢ ✓	26–35	Vanderbilt -22.2	Vanderbilt -21.0	+1.2	flat	Vanderbilt -20.5 @53¢ · Delaware +21.5 @56¢	90%	20–42	61	54	+6.8
Sat 9/12 3:00 PM	Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ Ohio Bobcats	modelB Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.0 =	27–29	Jacksonville State -4.1	Ohio -2.5	-6.6	Ohio -2.0 → Ohio -2.5 against	— · —	41%	28–24	52	50	+1.9
Sat 9/12 3:00 PM	Buffalo Bulls @ Florida International Panthers	modelA Buffalo Bulls +10.5 @51¢ ✗	20–33	Florida International -1.1	Florida International -10.0	-8.9	Florida International -10.5 → Florida International -10.0 with us	Florida International -9.5 @53¢ · Buffalo +10.5 @53¢	53%	24–26	50	48	+2.0
Sat 9/12 3:00 PM	Memphis Tigers @ Boise State Broncos	—	20–38	Boise State -6.8	Boise State -9.0	-2.2	flat	— · —	65%	24–31	56	56	-0.4
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	South Alabama Jaguars @ Tulane Green Wave	modelB South Alabama Jaguars +10.5 @53¢ ✓	24–28	Tulane -6.9	Tulane -10.0	-3.1	Tulane -10.5 → Tulane -10.0 with us	Tulane -9.5 @52¢ · South Alabama +10.5 @56¢	66%	22–29	51	50	+1.8
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	modelB Tennessee Volunteers -11.5 @53¢ ✓	45–24	Tennessee -16.2	Tennessee -12.5	-3.7	Tennessee -13.5 → Tennessee -12.5 against	Georgia Tech +11.5 @49¢ · Tennessee -11.5 @52¢	17%	37–21	58	56	+2.4
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	Bowling Green Falcons @ Nebraska Cornhuskers	—	7–56	Nebraska -26.9	Nebraska -30.0	-3.1	Nebraska -29.0 → Nebraska -30.0 against	Nebraska -30.5 @51¢ · Bowling Green +30.5 @50¢	94%	12–39	51	50	+0.6
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Marshall Thundering Herd	modelB Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +14.5 @53¢ ✓	26–28	Marshall -7.5	Marshall -12.5	-5.0	Marshall -14.5 → Marshall -12.5 with us	Marshall -11.5 @54¢ · Middle Tennessee +11.5 @48¢	67%	24–32	56	57	-1.0
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Sam Houston State Bearkats	modelB Tulsa Golden Hurricane -13.5 @52¢ ✗	23–17	Tulsa -17.6	Tulsa -12.0	-5.6	Tulsa -13.5 → Tulsa -12.0 against	Sam Houston +11.5 @50¢ · Tulsa -11.5 @52¢	15%	35–17	52	51	+0.6
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	Georgia State Panthers @ Kennesaw State Owls	modelA Kennesaw State Owls -9.5 @49¢ ✗	31–17	Kennesaw State -17.8	Kennesaw State -9.0	+8.8	flat	Kennesaw State -9.5 @47¢ · Georgia State +9.5 @54¢	85%	19–36	55	54	+1.1
Sat 9/12 4:00 PM	South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves	—		South Alabama -0.9	—	—	—	— · —	48%	28–27	55	—	—
Sat 9/12 4:15 PM	San Diego State Aztecs @ UCLA Bruins	modelB San Diego State Aztecs +11.5 @52¢ ✗	10–28	UCLA -10.4	UCLA -13.5	-3.1	UCLA -11.5 → UCLA -13.5 against	UCLA -13.5 @49¢ · San Diego State +13.5 @52¢	73%	18–29	47	54	-7.1
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes	—	13–16	Iowa -16.9	Iowa -14.0	+2.9	flat	Iowa -13.5 @55¢ · Iowa State +14.5 @53¢	84%	14–31	46	41	+4.9
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns	priceB Texas Longhorns -4.5 @37¢ ✗	23–24	Texas -1.4	Texas -1.5	-0.1	flat	Texas -1.5 @51¢ · Ohio State +1.5 @50¢	53%	24–25	49	50	-1.1
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Georgia Southern Eagles @ Clemson Tigers	modelA Georgia Southern Eagles +21.5 @57¢ ✓	7–22	Clemson -10.1	Clemson -20.5	-10.4	Clemson -21.0 → Clemson -20.5 with us	Clemson -20.5 @50¢ · Georgia Southern +20.5 @51¢	72%	23–33	56	55	+0.8
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oregon State Beavers	—	35–24	Texas Tech -22.7	Texas Tech -26.0	+3.3	Texas Tech -27.0 → Texas Tech -26.0 with us	Oregon State +27.5 @57¢ · Texas Tech -24.5 @53¢	9%	36–14	50	54	-3.4
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Navy Midshipmen @ Florida Atlantic Owls	modelB Navy Midshipmen -5.5 @53¢ ✗priceB Florida Atlantic Owls +2.5 @40¢ ✓	30–38	Navy -15.2	Navy -4.5	-10.8	Navy -5.5 → Navy -4.5 against	Florida Atlantic +4.5 @51¢ · Navy -4.5 @50¢	18%	39–23	62	58	+3.4
Sat 9/12 4:30 PM	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers	—	14–45	LSU -33.0	LSU -35.0	-2.0	LSU -34.0 → LSU -35.0 against	LSU -35.5 @49¢ · Louisiana Tech +35.5 @52¢	97%	7–40	47	56	-8.5
Sat 9/12 4:45 PM	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Auburn Tigers	—	8–43	Auburn -23.8	Auburn -33.0	-9.2	Auburn -30.5 → Auburn -33.0 against	Auburn -33.5 @50¢ · Southern Miss +33.5 @52¢	92%	13–37	50	56	-6.5
Sat 9/12 4:45 PM	Charlotte 49ers @ Ole Miss Rebels	—	9–41	Ole Miss -41.3	Ole Miss -45.5	-4.2	Ole Miss -47.5 → Ole Miss -45.5 with us	— · —	99%	7–48	55	60	-4.6
Sat 9/12 7:00 PM	North Dakota State Bison @ Air Force Falcons	priceB North Dakota State Bison -3.5 @41¢ ✓	38–32	North Dakota State -1.3	North Dakota State -2.5	+1.2	North Dakota State -3.5 → North Dakota State -2.5 with us	Air Force +2.5 @52¢ · North Dakota State -2.5 @49¢	47%	28–27	55	48	+7.1
Sat 9/12 7:15 PM	Arkansas Razorbacks @ Utah Utes	modelB Utah Utes -11.5 @54¢ ✓	10–43	Utah -12.2	Utah -12.0	+0.2	Utah -13.0 → Utah -12.0 against	Utah -11.5 @53¢ · Arkansas +11.5 @48¢	76%	25–37	61	56	+6.0
Sat 9/12 7:30 PM	Sacramento State Hornets @ Fresno State Bulldogs	modelB Sacramento State Hornets +18.5 @50¢ ✗	3–49	Fresno State -12.5	Fresno State -18.5	-6.0	flat	Fresno State -18.5 @49¢ · Sacramento State +18.5 @53¢	77%	15–28	43	45	-2.4
Sat 9/12 8:00 PM	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ USC Trojans	—	30–48	USC -25.1	USC -31.0	-5.9	flat	USC -30.5 @52¢ · Louisiana Ragin +30.5 @50¢	93%	16–41	57	60	-2.5
Sat 9/12 9:00 PM	New Mexico State Aggies @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors	modelB New Mexico State Aggies +10.5 @57¢ ✓	19–29	Hawai'i -6.8	Hawai'i -7.5	-0.7	Hawai'i -10.0 → Hawai'i -7.5 with us	Hawai'i -7.5 @48¢ · New Mexico State +7.5 @53¢	66%	22–29	52	50	+1.6

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.