Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
5 games · flags: live 2–0–0 (+2.66 u) · paper 2–1–0 (+0.71 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, October 8 · Week 5 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Thu 10/8 5:15 PM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys | modelB Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 @36¢ ✓ | 24–16 | DAL -2.5 | DAL -8.5 | -6.0 | DAL -10.0 → DAL -8.5 with us | DAL -9.5 @50¢ · TB +9.5 @51¢ | 57% | 24–26 | 50 | 48 | +1.1 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thursday, October 8 · Week 7 · 4 games | ||||||||||||||
| Thu 10/8 4:00 PM | Missouri State Bears @ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | — | 13–34 | Western Kentucky -1.2 | Missouri State -1.0 | +2.2 | Western Kentucky -2.5 → Missouri State -1.0 against | — · — | 53% | 27–28 | 55 | 56 | -1.8 | |
| Thu 10/8 4:00 PM | Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Liberty Flames | modelB Liberty Flames -13.5 @53¢ ✓ | 3–35 | Liberty -19.9 | Liberty -13.5 | +6.4 | Liberty -14.0 → Liberty -13.5 against | Liberty -13.5 @51¢ · Sam Houston +13.5 @50¢ | 90% | 16–36 | 52 | 52 | -0.4 | |
| Thu 10/8 4:30 PM | South Florida Bulls @ UTSA Roadrunners | modelA South Florida Bulls +7.5 @55¢ ✓ | 24–31 | UTSA -0.8 | UTSA -6.5 | -5.7 | UTSA -7.0 → UTSA -6.5 with us | UTSA -6.5 @50¢ · South Florida +6.5 @51¢ | 52% | 27–28 | 54 | 50 | +5.0 | |
| Thu 10/8 4:30 PM | South Alabama Jaguars @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | modelB Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5 @50¢ ✗ | 56–49 | Arkansas State -6.7 | Arkansas State -3.0 | +3.7 | Arkansas State -1.0 → Arkansas State -3.0 with us | Arkansas State -2.5 @54¢ · South Alabama +3.5 @55¢ | 67% | 24–31 | 55 | 60 | -4.3 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.