Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Saturday, October 17, 2026

48 games · flags: paper 24–17–0 (+7.52 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Sat Oct 17

Kick (PT)MatchupFlagsFinal Model linePinnacle lineΔ (home)Line move Kalshi spread (home · away)Home win%Model scoreModel totalPinnacle totalΔ total
Saturday, October 17 · Week 8 · 48 games
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMPittsburgh Panthers @ Boston College Eagles modelA Pittsburgh Panthers -6.5 @51¢ ✗21–27 Pittsburgh -13.5Pittsburgh -6.5-7.0flat Boston College +6.5 @50¢ · Pittsburgh -6.5 @51¢19% 33–195243+8.6
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMMississippi State Bulldogs @ LSU Tigers modelB Mississippi State Bulldogs +16.5 @52¢ ✗priceA Mississippi State Bulldogs +10.5 @46¢ ✗0–31 LSU -10.9LSU -17.5-6.6LSU -11.5 → LSU -17.5 against LSU -17.5 @50¢ · Mississippi State +17.5 @51¢76% 22–335656-0.9
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMVirginia Cavaliers @ SMU Mustangs modelB Virginia Cavaliers +10.5 @55¢ ✓priceB Virginia Cavaliers +5.5 @38¢ ✗13–23 SMU -5.8SMU -10.0-4.2SMU -9.0 → SMU -10.0 against SMU -9.5 @52¢ · Virginia +10.5 @54¢64% 23–295252+0.5
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMFlorida Gators @ Texas Longhorns modelB Texas Longhorns -9.5 @55¢ ✗priceB Florida Gators +9.5 @46¢ ✓27–24 Texas -15.0Texas -11.5+3.5Texas -10.0 → Texas -11.5 with us Texas -11.5 @50¢ · Florida +11.5 @51¢83% 20–355450+3.7
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMOhio State Buckeyes @ Indiana Hoosiers —19–15 Indiana -0.2Ohio State -3.0+3.2flat — · —51% 25–255150+0.1
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMKansas Jayhawks @ Kansas State Wildcats —24–35 Kansas State -3.4Kansas State -3.5-0.1Kansas State -6.5 → Kansas State -3.5 with us Kansas State -3.5 @49¢ · Kansas +3.5 @52¢59% 25–285456-1.9
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMBall State Cardinals @ Bowling Green Falcons —32–31 Bowling Green -9.4Bowling Green -6.5+2.9flat Bowling Green -6.5 @50¢ · Ball State +6.5 @51¢73% 20–294946+2.7
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMCincinnati Bearcats @ West Virginia Mountaineers —42–45 Cincinnati -1.8West Virginia -1.5-3.3flat West Virginia -1.5 @50¢ · Cincinnati +1.5 @51¢45% 30–285864-5.4
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMFlorida Atlantic Owls @ Army Black Knights —24–56 Army -2.4Army -2.5-0.1flat Army -2.5 @49¢ · Florida Atlantic +2.5 @52¢56% 26–285456-1.5
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMGeorgia State Panthers @ James Madison Dukes modelB James Madison Dukes -9.5 @50¢ ✓22–49 James Madison -13.8James Madison -9.5+4.2James Madison -13.0 → James Madison -9.5 against James Madison -9.5 @50¢ · Georgia State +9.5 @51¢81% 20–345458-4.1
Sat 10/17 9:00 AMNorthwestern Wildcats @ Michigan State Spartans modelB Northwestern Wildcats -7.5 ✗24–21 Northwestern -14.5Northwestern -7.0-7.5Northwestern -7.5 → Northwestern -7.0 against — · —18% 32–174950-0.8
Sat 10/17 9:30 AMRutgers Scarlet Knights @ Maryland Terrapins priceB Rutgers Scarlet Knights +5.5 @48¢ ✓37–30 Maryland -6.9Maryland -6.0+0.9Maryland -4.5 → Maryland -6.0 with us Maryland -5.5 @52¢ · Rutgers +6.5 @54¢67% 25–325756+1.4
Sat 10/17 10:00 AMCharlotte 49ers @ Temple Owls —38–31 Temple -24.3Temple -20.5+3.8Temple -21.5 → Temple -20.5 against — · —94% 14–385246+5.8
Sat 10/17 10:30 AMWestern Michigan Broncos @ Central Michigan Chippewas priceB Central Michigan Chippewas +5.5 @43¢ ✗21–14 Western Michigan -9.7Western Michigan -7.0-2.7Western Michigan -6.5 → Western Michigan -7.0 with us Central Michigan +7.5 @54¢ · Western Michigan -6.5 @55¢27% 27–174443+0.7
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMToledo Rockets @ Eastern Michigan Eagles priceB Eastern Michigan Eagles +4.5 @45¢ ✗34–14 Toledo -6.1Toledo -7.0+0.9Toledo -5.0 → Toledo -7.0 against Eastern Michigan +7.5 @54¢ · Toledo -6.5 @53¢35% 29–235253-1.3
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMAuburn Tigers @ Georgia Bulldogs priceA Auburn Tigers +21.5 @55¢ ✓27–24 Georgia -21.8Georgia -20.0+1.8Georgia -18.5 → Georgia -20.0 with us Georgia -18.5 @52¢ · Auburn +20.5 @53¢92% 14–365150+1.1
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMUNLV Rebels @ Air Force Falcons modelB Air Force Falcons +1.5 @53¢ ✓31–41 Air Force -5.1UNLV -1.0+6.1Air Force -1.0 → UNLV -1.0 against Air Force +1.5 @51¢ · UNLV -1.5 @50¢63% 24–295348+5.0
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMMissouri Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels modelA Missouri Tigers +6.5 @54¢ ✗3–31 Missouri -1.4Ole Miss -5.5-6.9Ole Miss -6.0 → Ole Miss -5.5 with us Ole Miss -5.5 @50¢ · Missouri +5.5 @51¢46% 29–275658-2.2
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMAkron Zips @ Miami (OH) RedHawks modelA Miami (OH) RedHawks -9.5 @52¢ ✓14–34 Miami (OH) -17.1Miami (OH) -9.5+7.6flat Miami (OH) -9.5 @51¢ · Akron +9.5 @50¢87% 17–345146+4.6
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMNorthern Illinois Huskies @ Wyoming Cowboys priceA Northern Illinois Huskies +4.5 @36¢ ✗23–41 Wyoming -9.8Wyoming -7.5+2.3flat Wyoming -7.5 @52¢ · Northern Illinois +7.5 @49¢74% 15–254142-1.3
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMArizona State Sun Devils @ Texas Tech Red Raiders modelB Texas Tech Red Raiders -14.5 ✓priceB Arizona State Sun Devils +13.5 @43¢ ✗25–53 Texas Tech -22.9Texas Tech -16.0+6.9Texas Tech -14.5 → Texas Tech -16.0 with us Texas Tech -14.5 @54¢ · Arizona State +16.5 @51¢93% 14–375250+1.9
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMNorth Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils —24–20 Duke -3.0Duke -3.0-0.0Duke -3.5 → Duke -3.0 with us Duke -2.5 @53¢ · North Carolina +3.5 @55¢58% 23–264947+1.7
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMAlabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers priceA Tennessee Volunteers +6.5 @41¢ ✓10–26 Alabama -8.2Alabama -7.5-0.8flat Tennessee +7.5 @50¢ · Alabama -7.5 @52¢30% 33–245751+5.9
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Virginia Tech Hokies priceB Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5 @41¢ ✗24–34 Virginia Tech -11.4Virginia Tech -8.0+3.4Virginia Tech -9.5 → Virginia Tech -8.0 against Virginia Tech -7.5 @53¢ · Georgia Tech +9.5 @52¢77% 21–335456-1.9
Sat 10/17 12:30 PMPenn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines modelB Penn State Nittany Lions +6.5 @55¢ ✓priceB Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 @46¢ ✓18–21 Michigan -1.8Michigan -6.5-4.7Michigan -6.0 → Michigan -6.5 against Michigan -6.5 @49¢ · Penn State +6.5 @52¢55% 23–244742+4.3
Sat 10/17 1:30 PMTulsa Golden Hurricane @ Rice Owls priceB Rice Owls +3.5 @47¢ ✗38–17 Tulsa -5.8Tulsa -4.5-1.3Tulsa -3.5 → Tulsa -4.5 with us Rice +4.5 @51¢ · Tulsa -4.5 @50¢35% 28–235146+5.0
Sat 10/17 2:00 PMTroy Trojans @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns —6–33 Louisiana Ragin -5.6Louisiana Ragin -3.0+2.6Louisiana Ragin -4.5 → Louisiana Ragin -3.0 against — · —64% 23–295350+3.0
Sat 10/17 3:00 PMWashington State Cougars @ Oregon State Beavers modelB Oregon State Beavers -17.5 @54¢ ✓priceB Washington State Cougars +21.5 @57¢ ✓30–48 Oregon State -23.1Oregon State -18.5+4.6Oregon State -17.5 → Oregon State -18.5 with us Oregon State -17.5 @53¢ · Washington State +17.5 @48¢93% 13–364952-3.3
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMNevada Wolf Pack @ North Dakota State Bison —17–31 North Dakota State -14.3North Dakota State -14.5-0.2North Dakota State -16.5 → North Dakota State -14.5 with us North Dakota State -14.5 @48¢ · Nevada +14.5 @53¢82% 17–314843+5.2
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMFlorida State Seminoles @ Miami Hurricanes —35–43 Miami -23.8Miami -20.0+3.8Miami -20.5 → Miami -20.0 against Miami -20.5 @52¢ · Florida State +20.5 @49¢94% 15–395356-2.6
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMKent State Golden Flashes @ South Florida Bulls modelB South Florida Bulls -20.5 @53¢ ✓2–29 South Florida -25.2South Florida -20.5+4.7South Florida -21.0 → South Florida -20.5 against South Florida -20.5 @51¢ · Kent State +20.5 @50¢95% 13–385045+5.4
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMArkansas Razorbacks @ Vanderbilt Commodores —31–21 Vanderbilt -3.1Vanderbilt -6.5-3.4flat Vanderbilt -6.5 @49¢ · Arkansas +6.5 @52¢58% 27–305850+7.1
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMTCU Horned Frogs @ Baylor Bears —17–6 Baylor -8.4Baylor -6.0+2.4Baylor -5.5 → Baylor -6.0 with us Baylor -5.5 @51¢ · TCU +6.5 @54¢71% 21–305148+2.2
Sat 10/17 4:00 PMArkansas State Red Wolves @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles —23–13 Arkansas State -7.6Arkansas State -6.5-1.1Arkansas State -7.0 → Arkansas State -6.5 against Southern Miss +6.5 @50¢ · Arkansas State -6.5 @51¢31% 32–245762-5.9
Sat 10/17 4:30 PMWisconsin Badgers @ UCLA Bruins modelB UCLA Bruins -3.0 ✓7–17 UCLA -7.4UCLA -2.5+4.9UCLA -3.0 → UCLA -2.5 against UCLA -2.5 @50¢ · Wisconsin +2.5 @51¢68% 20–284843+5.4
Sat 10/17 4:30 PMKentucky Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners —21–13 Oklahoma -5.8Oklahoma -6.5-0.7flat Oklahoma -6.5 @51¢ · Kentucky +6.5 @50¢65% 22–274944+5.5
Sat 10/17 4:30 PMOklahoma State Cowboys @ Houston Cougars —32–35 Houston -6.8Houston -4.5+2.3flat Houston -4.5 @50¢ · Oklahoma State +4.5 @51¢67% 23–305463-9.4
Sat 10/17 4:30 PMNotre Dame Fighting Irish @ BYU Cougars priceB BYU Cougars +9.5 @47¢ ✓24–28 Notre Dame -7.0Notre Dame -10.5+3.5Notre Dame -9.5 → Notre Dame -10.5 against BYU +10.5 @50¢ · Notre Dame -10.5 @51¢32% 29–225247+4.6
Sat 10/17 4:30 PMLouisville Cardinals @ Syracuse Orange modelB Syracuse Orange +14.5 @51¢ ✓priceB Syracuse Orange +13.5 @45¢ ✓34–26 Louisville -10.8Louisville -14.5+3.7Louisville -13.0 → Louisville -14.5 against Syracuse +14.5 @50¢ · Louisville -14.5 @51¢24% 33–225556-0.0
Sat 10/17 5:00 PMNavy Midshipmen @ UTSA Roadrunners priceB Navy Midshipmen +4.5 @42¢ ✓34–38 UTSA -5.5UTSA -6.5-1.0flat UTSA -6.5 @53¢ · Navy +6.5 @48¢64% 25–315655+0.9
Sat 10/17 5:00 PMLouisiana Tech Bulldogs @ UL Monroe Warhawks modelB Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -14.5 @51¢ ✓priceB UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5 @43¢ ✗24–0 Louisiana Tech -20.0Louisiana Tech -14.5-5.5flat UL Monroe +14.5 @47¢ · Louisiana Tech -14.5 @54¢10% 38–185756+0.5
Sat 10/17 6:00 PMSan Jose State Spartans @ UTEP Miners modelB San Jose State Spartans -7.5 @49¢ ✓24–11 San José State -12.0San José State -7.0-5.0San José State -7.5 → San José State -7.0 against UTEP +7.5 @55¢ · San José State -6.5 @55¢22% 31–205146+5.5
Sat 10/17 7:00 PMOhio Bobcats @ Sacramento State Hornets —48–7 Ohio -17.7Ohio -14.5-3.2flat Sacramento State +14.5 @48¢ · Ohio -14.5 @53¢13% 32–154748-0.5
Sat 10/17 7:15 PMUtah Utes @ Colorado Buffaloes modelB Utah Utes -14.5 ✗27–24 Utah -23.6Utah -14.5-9.1flat Colorado +14.5 @51¢ · Utah -14.5 @50¢6% 37–135049+0.6
Sat 10/17 7:30 PMFresno State Bulldogs @ San Diego State Aztecs modelB Fresno State Bulldogs -6.5 @57¢ ✗priceB San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 @51¢ ✓23–26 Fresno State -12.3Fresno State -7.5-4.8Fresno State -7.0 → Fresno State -7.5 with us San Diego State +7.5 @52¢ · Fresno State -7.5 @49¢21% 30–174746+1.1
Sat 10/17 7:30 PMWake Forest Demon Deacons @ California Golden Bears —41–7 Wake Forest -12.7Wake Forest -10.0-2.7flat California +10.5 @53¢ · Wake Forest -9.5 @53¢21% 33–205354-0.5
Sat 10/17 7:30 PMNew Mexico Lobos @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors modelB New Mexico Lobos -14.0 ✗21–10 New Mexico -25.9New Mexico -14.5-11.4New Mexico -14.0 → New Mexico -14.5 with us Hawai'i +14.5 @51¢ · New Mexico -14.5 @50¢5% 37–114944+4.1
Sat 10/17 8:00 PMNebraska Cornhuskers @ Oregon Ducks modelB Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5 @52¢ ✓priceB Nebraska Cornhuskers +4.5 @40¢ ✓14–17 Oregon -3.4Oregon -7.0-3.6flat Oregon -6.5 @52¢ · Nebraska +7.5 @56¢59% 25–295452+2.7

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.