Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Saturday, September 19, 2026

55 games · flags: paper 9–14–0 (-3.48 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Sat Sep 19

Kick (PT)	Matchup	Flags	Final	Model line	Pinnacle line	Δ (home)	Line move	Kalshi spread (home · away)	Home win%	Model score	Model total	Pinnacle total	Δ total
Saturday, September 19 · Week 4 · 55 games
Sat 9/19 8:30 AM	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Delaware Blue Hens	priceB Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 @39¢ ✗priceB Delaware Blue Hens -7.5 @39¢ ✓	14–22	Delaware -3.6	Delaware -5.0	-1.4	flat	Delaware -4.5 @52¢ · Coastal Carolina +5.5 @51¢	58%	28–32	60	56	+3.6
Sat 9/19 8:59 AM	Georgia Bulldogs @ Arkansas Razorbacks	—	45–17	Georgia -27.2	Georgia -24.5	-2.7	flat	Arkansas +24.5 @50¢ · Georgia -24.5 @51¢	5%	43–16	60	55	+4.7
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Buffalo Bulls @ Penn State Nittany Lions	—	13–55	Penn State -35.7	Penn State -41.0	-5.3	flat	Penn State -39.5 @53¢ · Buffalo +41.5 @53¢	98%	7–42	49	49	+0.0
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	North Carolina Tar Heels @ Clemson Tigers	—	20–28	Clemson -0.7	Clemson -3.0	-2.3	Clemson -3.5 → Clemson -3.0 with us	Clemson -2.5 @56¢ · North Carolina +3.5 @53¢	52%	22–23	45	44	+0.2
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Akron Zips @ Minnesota Golden Gophers	—	7–41	Minnesota -23.3	Minnesota -23.5	-0.2	flat	Minnesota -23.5 @49¢ · Akron +23.5 @52¢	91%	13–36	49	49	-0.5
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Kent State Golden Flashes @ Ohio State Buckeyes	—	3–59	Ohio State -49.8	Ohio State -53.0	-3.2	flat	Ohio State -52.5 @50¢ · Kent State +52.5 @51¢	99%	3–53	56	58	-2.8
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Tulane Green Wave @ Kansas State Wildcats	—	20–31	Kansas State -22.9	Kansas State -20.5	+2.4	flat	Kansas State -20.5 @51¢ · Tulane +20.5 @50¢	91%	13–36	50	50	-0.3
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Bowling Green Falcons @ Iowa State Cyclones	—	7–55	Iowa State -26.2	Iowa State -23.5	+2.7	flat	Iowa State -23.5 @51¢ · Bowling Green +23.5 @50¢	94%	10–36	47	44	+2.8
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	Kansas Jayhawks @ Arizona State Sun Devils	priceB Arizona State Sun Devils -7.5 @40¢ ✗	17–24	Arizona State -5.7	Arizona State -5.5	+0.2	flat	Arizona State -5.5 @50¢ · Kansas +5.5 @51¢	63%	24–29	53	50	+2.7
Sat 9/19 9:00 AM	North Texas Mean Green @ Texas State Bobcats	modelB North Texas Mean Green +3.5 @56¢ ✗	35–49	North Texas -1.3	Texas State -3.0	-4.3	flat	Texas State -2.5 @53¢ · North Texas +3.5 @57¢	47%	33–32	65	62	+3.0
Sat 9/19 9:30 AM	Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Wisconsin Badgers	—	10–54	Wisconsin -21.1	Wisconsin -23.5	-2.4	flat	Wisconsin -23.5 @52¢ · Eastern Michigan +23.5 @49¢	89%	12–33	45	45	+0.2
Sat 9/19 9:45 AM	NC State Wolfpack @ Vanderbilt Commodores	—	31–35	Vanderbilt -5.2	Vanderbilt -3.5	+1.7	flat	— · —	62%	26–32	58	51	+7.0
Sat 9/19 10:00 AM	Wyoming Cowboys @ Central Michigan Chippewas	priceB Wyoming Cowboys -3.5 @39¢ ✗	10–24	Wyoming -0.1	Wyoming -1.0	+0.9	Central Michigan -1.5 → Wyoming -1.0 against	Central Michigan +1.5 @53¢ · Wyoming -1.5 @48¢	50%	22–22	43	39	+4.2
Sat 9/19 12:00 PM	Temple Owls @ Toledo Rockets	—	48–49	Toledo -3.5	Toledo -6.0	-2.5	flat	Toledo -5.5 @51¢ · Temple +6.5 @53¢	58%	23–26	49	48	+0.4
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Cincinnati Bearcats	modelB Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5 @51¢ ✗	31–35	Cincinnati -19.9	Cincinnati -16.0	+3.9	Cincinnati -14.5 → Cincinnati -16.0 with us	Cincinnati -14.5 @52¢ · Miami (OH) +16.5 @54¢	88%	17–37	53	49	+4.3
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	USC Trojans @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights	—	42–35	USC -23.3	USC -22.0	-1.3	USC -24.5 → USC -22.0 against	Rutgers +21.5 @51¢ · USC -21.5 @50¢	9%	41–18	58	58	-0.2
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	Utah State Aggies @ Utah Utes	—	0–33	Utah -24.3	Utah -27.5	-3.2	Utah -28.0 → Utah -27.5 with us	Utah -27.5 @50¢ · Utah State +27.5 @51¢	92%	16–40	56	56	-0.9
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	Florida State Seminoles @ Alabama Crimson Tide	—	36–50	Alabama -18.6	Alabama -19.5	-0.9	flat	Alabama -20.5 @47¢ · Florida State +20.5 @54¢	86%	17–35	52	50	+2.5
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	Kentucky Wildcats @ Texas A&M Aggies	modelB Texas A&M Aggies -16.5 @53¢ ✗	31–21	Texas A&M -23.4	Texas A&M -17.0	+6.4	flat	Texas A&M -16.5 @54¢ · Kentucky +17.5 @54¢	92%	16–39	55	50	+5.1
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals	priceB Louisville Cardinals -4.5 @39¢ ✓	31–41	Louisville -1.6	Louisville -2.0	-0.4	flat	Louisville -1.5 @51¢ · SMU +2.5 @53¢	54%	26–28	54	58	-4.6
Sat 9/19 12:30 PM	UTEP Miners @ Michigan Wolverines	—	17–52	Michigan -33.4	Michigan -35.0	-1.6	flat	Michigan -33.5 @55¢ · UTEP +35.5 @54¢	98%	7–40	47	48	-1.5
Sat 9/19 1:00 PM	Ball State Cardinals @ Liberty Flames	—	15–51	Liberty -17.4	Liberty -14.0	+3.4	flat	Liberty -13.5 @54¢ · Ball State +14.5 @52¢	85%	16–33	49	50	-1.2
Sat 9/19 1:00 PM	Stanford Cardinal @ Duke Blue Devils	modelB Duke Blue Devils -9.5 @52¢ ✓	7–35	Duke -14.5	Duke -10.0	+4.5	Duke -9.5 → Duke -10.0 with us	Duke -9.5 @52¢ · Stanford +10.5 @54¢	80%	19–34	53	52	+1.5
Sat 9/19 1:00 PM	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Baylor Bears	modelB Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +20.5 @55¢ ✓	19–36	Baylor -15.5	Baylor -20.0	-4.5	Baylor -19.5 → Baylor -20.0 against	Baylor -18.5 @53¢ · Louisiana Tech +20.5 @53¢	82%	20–35	55	49	+6.4
Sat 9/19 1:00 PM	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Indiana Hoosiers	—	0–38	Indiana -44.5	Indiana -44.5	+0.0	Indiana -44.0 → Indiana -44.5 with us	— · —	99%	6–51	57	61	-4.3
Sat 9/19 1:15 PM	Mississippi State Bulldogs @ South Carolina Gamecocks	modelB South Carolina Gamecocks -4.0 ✗	41–34	South Carolina -8.2	South Carolina -4.0	+4.2	flat	— · —	69%	23–31	54	58	-4.9
Sat 9/19 3:00 PM	Charlotte 49ers @ Appalachian State Mountaineers	—	21–26	App State -19.8	App State -17.5	+2.3	flat	— · —	88%	16–36	52	53	-0.7
Sat 9/19 3:00 PM	East Carolina Pirates @ Old Dominion Monarchs	—	20–17	Old Dominion -3.3	Old Dominion -2.5	+0.8	Old Dominion -3.0 → Old Dominion -2.5 against	Old Dominion -2.5 @53¢ · East Carolina +2.5 @48¢	58%	25–28	54	49	+4.6
Sat 9/19 3:00 PM	Florida International Panthers @ Florida Atlantic Owls	—	10–16	Florida Atlantic -4.7	Florida Atlantic -6.5	-1.8	Florida Atlantic -7.0 → Florida Atlantic -6.5 with us	Florida Atlantic -6.5 @51¢ · Florida International +6.5 @50¢	61%	28–32	60	62	-2.7
Sat 9/19 3:30 PM	Marshall Thundering Herd @ Missouri State Bears	—	30–24	Marshall -0.7	Marshall -4.5	+3.9	flat	— · —	48%	28–27	55	54	+1.9
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	UConn Huskies @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles	—	48–20	UConn -6.0	UConn -3.0	-3.0	flat	Southern Miss +3.5 @54¢ · UConn -2.5 @56¢	36%	32–26	57	54	+3.3
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Georgia State Panthers @ UCF Knights	modelB UCF Knights -17.5 @52¢ ✗	30–44	UCF -27.4	UCF -18.0	+9.4	flat	UCF -17.5 @49¢ · Georgia State +17.5 @52¢	95%	11–38	49	50	-1.9
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Georgia Southern Eagles @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks	—	27–31	Jacksonville State -0.6	Jacksonville State -3.0	-2.4	flat	— · —	51%	27–27	54	52	+1.6
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Troy Trojans @ Missouri Tigers	—	17–27	Missouri -26.9	Missouri -27.0	-0.1	flat	— · —	94%	12–38	50	50	-0.5
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Florida Gators @ Auburn Tigers	modelB Florida Gators -2.5 @52¢ ✓priceB Florida Gators -4.5 @40¢ ✓	44–39	Florida -7.0	Florida -2.5	-4.5	flat	Auburn +2.5 @50¢ · Florida -2.5 @51¢	34%	28–21	49	54	-4.8
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Nevada Wolf Pack @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	modelB Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5 @51¢ ✗	20–27	Nevada -13.0	Nevada -4.0	-9.0	flat	Middle Tennessee +4.5 @53¢ · Nevada -3.5 @52¢	22%	32–19	51	50	+0.8
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Ohio Bobcats @ South Alabama Jaguars	—	36–41	South Alabama -4.3	South Alabama -6.5	-2.2	South Alabama -7.0 → South Alabama -6.5 with us	South Alabama -6.5 @52¢ · Ohio +6.5 @49¢	60%	25–29	54	49	+5.2
Sat 9/19 4:00 PM	Western Michigan Broncos @ Rice Owls	—	28–21	Western Michigan -12.8	Western Michigan -9.0	-3.8	Western Michigan -10.0 → Western Michigan -9.0 against	Rice +9.5 @50¢ · Western Michigan -9.5 @51¢	22%	29–16	46	44	+1.6
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	Colorado Buffaloes @ Northwestern Wildcats	priceB Colorado Buffaloes +2.5 @42¢ ✗	7–41	Northwestern -6.4	Northwestern -3.5	+2.9	flat	Northwestern -3.5 @50¢ · Colorado +3.5 @51¢	65%	20–26	46	48	-2.1
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	New Mexico Lobos @ Oklahoma Sooners	modelA New Mexico Lobos +23.5 @53¢ ✓	6–14	Oklahoma -16.2	Oklahoma -22.0	-5.8	Oklahoma -23.5 → Oklahoma -22.0 with us	Oklahoma -21.5 @50¢ · New Mexico +23.5 @56¢	83%	15–31	45	46	-0.0
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	LSU Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels	modelB LSU Tigers -2.5 @55¢ ✗priceB LSU Tigers -3.5 @42¢ ✗	24–32	LSU -9.4	LSU -3.0	-6.4	flat	Ole Miss +3.5 @55¢ · LSU -2.5 @55¢	29%	31–22	53	58	-6.0
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	Michigan State Spartans @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	—	10–27	Notre Dame -27.9	Notre Dame -30.0	-2.1	flat	Notre Dame -29.5 @50¢ · Michigan State +30.5 @53¢	95%	13–41	54	52	+2.1
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	Virginia Tech Hokies @ Maryland Terrapins	—	35–26	Virginia Tech -0.5	Virginia Tech -3.0	+2.5	flat	Maryland +3.5 @57¢ · Virginia Tech -2.5 @52¢	49%	26–26	52	54	-1.3
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	BYU Cougars @ Colorado State Rams	—	41–23	BYU -19.9	BYU -17.0	-2.9	flat	Colorado State +17.5 @50¢ · BYU -16.5 @55¢	12%	35–15	50	52	-2.4
Sat 9/19 4:30 PM	Virginia Cavaliers @ West Virginia Mountaineers	—	27–38	Virginia -9.9	Virginia -10.5	+0.6	Virginia -10.0 → Virginia -10.5 against	West Virginia +10.5 @51¢ · Virginia -10.5 @50¢	28%	31–21	52	54	-2.0
Sat 9/19 4:45 PM	Kennesaw State Owls @ Tennessee Volunteers	—	9–42	Tennessee -36.7	Tennessee -35.5	+1.2	flat	Tennessee -35.5 @51¢ · Kennesaw State +35.5 @50¢	98%	11–48	59	60	-0.7
Sat 9/19 5:00 PM	UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas Longhorns	—	6–30	Texas -27.6	Texas -30.0	-2.4	flat	Texas -29.5 @52¢ · UTSA +30.5 @53¢	95%	14–42	56	58	-1.8
Sat 9/19 5:00 PM	UAB Blazers @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns	modelB Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.5 ✗	14–21	Louisiana Ragin -14.3	Louisiana Ragin -8.0	+6.3	Louisiana Ragin -7.5 → Louisiana Ragin -8.0 with us	— · —	80%	23–37	60	55	+5.1
Sat 9/19 5:00 PM	Arkansas State Red Wolves @ TCU Horned Frogs	—	7–31	TCU -20.5	TCU -19.0	+1.5	TCU -20.0 → TCU -19.0 against	TCU -17.5 @54¢ · Arkansas State +20.5 @54¢	89%	16–36	52	56	-4.4
Sat 9/19 5:00 PM	Houston Cougars @ Texas Tech Red Raiders	—	26–28	Texas Tech -15.4	—	—	—	— · —	82%	18–34	52	—	—
Sat 9/19 7:00 PM	James Madison Dukes @ San Diego State Aztecs	modelB James Madison Dukes +2.5 @51¢ ✓priceB San Diego State Aztecs -3.5 @41¢ ✗	26–13	James Madison -1.8	San Diego State -2.0	-3.8	San Diego State -2.5 → San Diego State -2.0 with us	San Diego State -1.5 @51¢ · James Madison +2.5 @52¢	46%	23–21	44	46	-2.2
Sat 9/19 7:30 PM	North Dakota State Bison @ Sacramento State Hornets	—	31–10	North Dakota State -27.4	North Dakota State -26.5	-0.9	North Dakota State -27.5 → North Dakota State -26.5 against	Sacramento State +27.5 @52¢ · North Dakota State -27.5 @49¢	5%	37–10	48	50	-3.0
Sat 9/19 7:30 PM	Northern Illinois Huskies @ Arizona Wildcats	—	17–42	Arizona -30.3	Arizona -34.0	-3.7	Arizona -34.5 → Arizona -34.0 with us	Arizona -33.5 @51¢ · Northern Illinois +35.5 @58¢	96%	8–39	47	50	-3.3
Sat 9/19 8:00 PM	Purdue Boilermakers @ UCLA Bruins	—	38–52	UCLA -14.6	UCLA -14.0	+0.6	UCLA -14.5 → UCLA -14.0 against	UCLA -13.5 @54¢ · Purdue +14.5 @53¢	80%	19–34	53	53	+0.5
Sat 9/19 8:00 PM	Fresno State Bulldogs @ San Jose State Spartans	priceB Fresno State Bulldogs -7.5 @42¢ ✓	26–10	Fresno State -7.3	Fresno State -6.5	-0.8	flat	San José State +6.5 @52¢ · Fresno State -6.5 @49¢	33%	29–22	50	50	+0.3

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.