Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
50 games · flags: paper 22–23–0 (+0.62 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, October 3 · Week 6 · 50 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sat 10/3 8:00 AM | Memphis Tigers @ Charlotte 49ers | modelB Memphis Tigers -20.0 ✓ | 59–8 | Memphis -24.7 | Memphis -20.0 | -4.7 | flat | Charlotte +20.5 @50¢ · Memphis -20.5 @51¢ | 6% | 39–14 | 52 | 52 | +0.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | UCF Knights @ Houston Cougars | modelB UCF Knights +11.5 @54¢ ✓ | 17–27 | Houston -6.0 | Houston -10.5 | -4.5 | Houston -11.0 → Houston -10.5 with us | Houston -10.5 @51¢ · UCF +10.5 @50¢ | 65% | 22–28 | 50 | 51 | -1.1 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels | — | 37–26 | Notre Dame -22.7 | Notre Dame -21.0 | -1.7 | Notre Dame -21.5 → Notre Dame -21.0 against | North Carolina +21.5 @53¢ · Notre Dame -20.5 @54¢ | 7% | 36–13 | 49 | 46 | +2.2 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Boston College Eagles @ SMU Mustangs | modelB Boston College Eagles +21.5 @56¢ ✓ | 16–25 | SMU -15.9 | SMU -21.0 | -5.1 | flat | SMU -20.5 @56¢ · Boston College +21.5 @51¢ | 85% | 19–35 | 54 | 56 | -1.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Kansas Jayhawks | modelB Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +20.5 @53¢ ✗ | 0–55 | Kansas -15.9 | Kansas -20.5 | -4.6 | Kansas -18.5 → Kansas -20.5 against | Kansas -20.5 @51¢ · Middle Tennessee +20.5 @50¢ | 85% | 18–34 | 52 | 50 | +2.0 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Navy Midshipmen @ Air Force Falcons | — | 9–14 | Air Force -5.1 | Air Force -3.0 | +2.1 | flat | — · — | 63% | 27–32 | 59 | 46 | +13.6 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | priceB Mississippi State Bulldogs +2.5 @36¢ ✗ | 56–23 | Alabama -5.9 | Alabama -5.5 | -0.4 | Alabama -6.0 → Alabama -5.5 against | Mississippi State +5.5 @51¢ · Alabama -5.5 @51¢ | 35% | 32–27 | 59 | 62 | -2.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | West Virginia Mountaineers @ Iowa State Cyclones | — | 42–45 | Iowa State -6.5 | Iowa State -3.0 | +3.5 | Iowa State -3.5 → Iowa State -3.0 against | Iowa State -2.5 @55¢ · West Virginia +3.5 @54¢ | 66% | 23–29 | 52 | 53 | -1.5 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Stanford Cardinal @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | priceB Wake Forest Demon Deacons -14.5 @41¢ ✓ | 3–57 | Wake Forest -15.2 | Wake Forest -14.5 | +0.7 | Wake Forest -13.0 → Wake Forest -14.5 with us | Wake Forest -14.5 @49¢ · Stanford +14.5 @52¢ | 84% | 19–34 | 52 | 54 | -1.6 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Syracuse Orange @ UConn Huskies | modelB UConn Huskies +6.5 @51¢ ✓priceB UConn Huskies +4.5 @43¢ ✓ | 42–41 | Syracuse -0.5 | Syracuse -7.0 | +6.5 | Syracuse -4.5 → Syracuse -7.0 against | UConn +7.5 @57¢ · Syracuse -6.5 @52¢ | 49% | 27–26 | 53 | 51 | +2.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:00 AM | Michigan Wolverines @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | priceB Michigan Wolverines -7.5 @41¢ ✗ | 14–20 | Michigan -3.6 | Michigan -6.0 | +2.4 | flat | Minnesota +6.5 @50¢ · Michigan -5.5 @54¢ | 41% | 25–21 | 46 | 43 | +2.8 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:30 AM | Michigan State Spartans @ Wisconsin Badgers | — | 3–31 | Wisconsin -9.5 | Wisconsin -9.5 | -0.0 | Wisconsin -10.0 → Wisconsin -9.5 with us | Wisconsin -9.5 @48¢ · Michigan State +9.5 @53¢ | 73% | 18–28 | 46 | 44 | +2.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 9:45 AM | Vanderbilt Commodores @ Georgia Bulldogs | — | 14–38 | Georgia -27.3 | Georgia -25.0 | +2.3 | Georgia -24.0 → Georgia -25.0 with us | Georgia -24.5 @53¢ · Vanderbilt +24.5 @49¢ | 96% | 15–42 | 58 | 50 | +7.1 | |
| Sat 10/3 10:00 AM | Western Michigan Broncos @ Buffalo Bulls | modelB Buffalo Bulls +13.5 ✓ | 20–17 | Western Michigan -9.4 | Western Michigan -13.5 | +4.1 | flat | Buffalo +13.5 @53¢ · Western Michigan -13.5 @48¢ | 27% | 28–18 | 46 | 46 | -0.0 | |
| Sat 10/3 11:00 AM | Toledo Rockets @ Ball State Cardinals | modelB Toledo Rockets -17.5 @54¢ ✗ | 39–24 | Toledo -24.0 | Toledo -20.5 | -3.5 | Toledo -18.5 → Toledo -20.5 with us | Ball State +20.5 @48¢ · Toledo -20.5 @53¢ | 6% | 37–13 | 51 | 52 | -1.1 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Virginia Cavaliers @ Florida State Seminoles | modelB Virginia Cavaliers -1.5 @50¢ ✗ | 7–38 | Virginia -5.9 | Virginia -1.5 | -4.4 | Virginia -3.0 → Virginia -1.5 against | Florida State +1.5 @51¢ · Virginia -1.5 @50¢ | 35% | 30–24 | 54 | 52 | +2.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Florida Gators @ Missouri Tigers | priceB Florida Gators -7.5 @39¢ ✗priceB Missouri Tigers +2.5 @37¢ ✓ | 17–45 | Florida -6.3 | Florida -5.5 | -0.8 | flat | Missouri +5.5 @50¢ · Florida -5.5 @51¢ | 34% | 31–25 | 56 | 58 | -1.9 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Bowling Green Falcons @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | modelB Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.5 ✗ | 24–20 | Miami (OH) -23.5 | Miami (OH) -12.5 | +11.0 | Miami (OH) -13.5 → Miami (OH) -12.5 against | Miami (OH) -11.5 @51¢ · Bowling Green +11.5 @50¢ | 94% | 13–37 | 50 | 43 | +7.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Louisville Cardinals @ NC State Wolfpack | — | 28–31 | Louisville -4.9 | Louisville -3.0 | -1.9 | Louisville -6.0 → Louisville -3.0 against | — · — | 38% | 31–26 | 58 | 58 | +0.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Akron Zips @ Central Michigan Chippewas | — | 17–41 | Central Michigan -8.7 | Central Michigan -6.5 | +2.2 | Central Michigan -6.0 → Central Michigan -6.5 with us | Central Michigan -6.5 @53¢ · Akron +6.5 @48¢ | 71% | 20–28 | 48 | 47 | +0.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes @ Iowa Hawkeyes | priceB Iowa Hawkeyes +9.5 @38¢ ✗ | 31–14 | Ohio State -11.7 | Ohio State -14.5 | +2.8 | Ohio State -13.5 → Ohio State -14.5 against | Iowa +14.5 @53¢ · Ohio State -14.5 @48¢ | 23% | 29–17 | 46 | 46 | -0.5 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Wyoming Cowboys @ North Dakota State Bison | modelB North Dakota State Bison -19.0 ✓ | 0–28 | North Dakota State -24.4 | North Dakota State -17.0 | +7.4 | North Dakota State -19.0 → North Dakota State -17.0 against | North Dakota State -16.5 @54¢ · Wyoming +17.5 @54¢ | 94% | 10–35 | 45 | 44 | +0.9 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Ohio Bobcats @ Kent State Golden Flashes | modelA Ohio Bobcats -3.5 @51¢ ✗priceB Ohio Bobcats -4.5 @43¢ ✗ | 13–10 | Ohio -11.3 | Ohio -3.5 | -7.8 | Ohio -4.0 → Ohio -3.5 against | Kent State +3.5 @50¢ · Ohio -3.5 @51¢ | 23% | 33–22 | 55 | 50 | +4.8 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Old Dominion Monarchs @ Georgia State Panthers | modelB Georgia State Panthers +1.5 @53¢ ✓priceB Old Dominion Monarchs +1.5 @50¢ ✗ | 10–42 | Georgia State -3.1 | Georgia State -2.5 | +0.6 | Old Dominion -1.0 → Georgia State -2.5 with us | Georgia State -2.5 @51¢ · Old Dominion +2.5 @50¢ | 58% | 26–29 | 55 | 51 | +4.0 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | California Golden Bears @ UNLV Rebels | priceB UNLV Rebels -2.5 @51¢ ✓ | 31–39 | UNLV -1.7 | UNLV -2.5 | -0.8 | UNLV -3.0 → UNLV -2.5 with us | UNLV -2.5 @49¢ · California +2.5 @52¢ | 54% | 25–27 | 52 | 53 | -0.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:30 PM | Auburn Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers | priceB Auburn Tigers +5.5 @43¢ ✗ | 14–24 | Tennessee -9.4 | Tennessee -6.5 | +2.9 | Tennessee -7.0 → Tennessee -6.5 against | Tennessee -6.5 @52¢ · Auburn +6.5 @49¢ | 73% | 22–32 | 54 | 54 | -0.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 12:45 PM | Marshall Thundering Herd @ James Madison Dukes | modelB James Madison Dukes -17.5 @53¢ ✓ | 17–45 | James Madison -26.7 | James Madison -18.5 | +8.2 | flat | James Madison -17.5 @51¢ · Marshall +17.5 @50¢ | 96% | 14–40 | 54 | 56 | -1.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 1:00 PM | Maryland Terrapins @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | modelB Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5 @50¢ ✓priceB Maryland Terrapins +12.5 @42¢ ✗ | 23–48 | Nebraska -18.6 | Nebraska -14.5 | +4.1 | flat | Nebraska -14.5 @50¢ · Maryland +14.5 @51¢ | 88% | 17–36 | 53 | 52 | +0.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 1:00 PM | UTEP Miners @ New Mexico Lobos | modelB New Mexico Lobos -22.5 ✓ | 7–61 | New Mexico -35.7 | New Mexico -22.5 | +13.2 | flat | New Mexico -22.5 @52¢ · UTEP +22.5 @49¢ | 99% | 7–43 | 50 | 48 | +1.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 1:15 PM | Purdue Boilermakers @ Illinois Fighting Illini | modelB Illinois Fighting Illini -9.5 @53¢ ✗ | 24–17 | Illinois -15.4 | Illinois -10.0 | +5.4 | flat | Illinois -9.5 @54¢ · Purdue +10.5 @53¢ | 84% | 21–37 | 58 | 62 | -4.8 | |
| Sat 10/3 1:15 PM | Kentucky Wildcats @ South Carolina Gamecocks | — | 35–34 | South Carolina -3.0 | South Carolina -2.5 | +0.5 | South Carolina -3.0 → South Carolina -2.5 against | — · — | 58% | 25–28 | 53 | 54 | -0.5 | |
| Sat 10/3 3:00 PM | Oregon State Beavers @ Colorado State Rams | priceA Colorado State Rams +2.5 @37¢ ✗ | 56–26 | Oregon State -5.6 | Oregon State -6.5 | +0.9 | Oregon State -4.0 → Oregon State -6.5 against | Colorado State +6.5 @48¢ · Oregon State -6.5 @53¢ | 36% | 30–24 | 54 | 62 | -8.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:00 PM | UTSA Roadrunners @ Rice Owls | priceB Rice Owls +9.5 @43¢ ✓ | 16–14 | UTSA -13.3 | UTSA -11.5 | -1.8 | UTSA -10.0 → UTSA -11.5 with us | Rice +11.5 @49¢ · UTSA -11.5 @52¢ | 20% | 36–22 | 58 | 56 | +2.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:00 PM | UL Monroe Warhawks @ South Alabama Jaguars | — | 35–52 | South Alabama -17.1 | South Alabama -13.5 | +3.6 | South Alabama -14.0 → South Alabama -13.5 against | South Alabama -13.5 @50¢ · UL Monroe +13.5 @51¢ | 86% | 20–37 | 57 | 57 | -0.0 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:00 PM | Georgia Southern Eagles @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | — | 31–24 | Georgia Southern -0.9 | Georgia Southern -1.5 | +0.6 | Georgia Southern -2.5 → Georgia Southern -1.5 with us | Coastal Carolina +1.5 @46¢ · Georgia Southern -1.5 @55¢ | 48% | 29–28 | 56 | 53 | +3.2 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:00 PM | BYU Cougars @ TCU Horned Frogs | — | 17–10 | BYU -6.8 | BYU -6.0 | -0.8 | flat | TCU +6.5 @55¢ · BYU -5.5 @50¢ | 33% | 28–21 | 49 | 48 | +0.8 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:00 PM | Arkansas Razorbacks @ Texas A&M Aggies | — | 7–34 | Texas A&M -11.4 | Texas A&M -14.0 | -2.6 | flat | Texas A&M -13.5 @52¢ · Arkansas +14.5 @55¢ | 77% | 23–35 | 58 | 50 | +7.9 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:30 PM | Army Black Knights @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | modelB Army Black Knights -1.5 @51¢ ✗priceB Army Black Knights -3.5 @43¢ ✗ | 29–31 | Army -5.6 | Louisiana Tech -1.0 | -6.6 | Army -3.0 → Louisiana Tech -1.0 against | Louisiana Tech -1.5 @48¢ · Army +1.5 @53¢ | 36% | 27–22 | 49 | 48 | +1.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:30 PM | Temple Owls @ South Florida Bulls | modelB South Florida Bulls -5.5 @50¢ ✗ | 17–13 | South Florida -9.8 | South Florida -5.5 | +4.3 | South Florida -6.5 → South Florida -5.5 against | South Florida -5.5 @50¢ · Temple +5.5 @51¢ | 74% | 22–32 | 54 | 48 | +6.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:30 PM | Miami Hurricanes @ Clemson Tigers | — | 41–13 | Miami -19.4 | Miami -15.5 | -3.9 | Miami -17.0 → Miami -15.5 against | Clemson +14.5 @51¢ · Miami -14.5 @50¢ | 10% | 34–14 | 48 | 48 | +0.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:30 PM | Utah State Aggies @ Boise State Broncos | — | 18–37 | Boise State -19.7 | Boise State -19.5 | +0.2 | Boise State -21.0 → Boise State -19.5 against | — · — | 90% | 16–35 | 51 | 52 | -0.6 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:30 PM | Washington Huskies @ USC Trojans | priceA Washington Huskies +7.5 @45¢ ✓ | 21–25 | USC -9.6 | USC -7.0 | +2.6 | USC -9.0 → USC -7.0 against | USC -6.5 @57¢ · Washington +7.5 @52¢ | 73% | 22–32 | 54 | 58 | -3.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 4:31 PM | Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Colorado Buffaloes | modelA Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 @52¢ ✓ | 29–7 | Texas Tech -20.4 | Texas Tech -14.0 | -6.4 | Texas Tech -13.5 → Texas Tech -14.0 with us | Colorado +14.5 @55¢ · Texas Tech -13.5 @52¢ | 9% | 35–15 | 50 | 50 | +0.7 | |
| Sat 10/3 5:00 PM | Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | modelB Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.0 ✗ | 20–23 | Louisiana Ragin -10.4 | Louisiana Ragin -6.0 | +4.4 | Louisiana Ragin -7.0 → Louisiana Ragin -6.0 against | — · — | 75% | 21–31 | 52 | 50 | +2.4 | |
| Sat 10/3 5:00 PM | Indiana Hoosiers @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | — | 47–15 | Indiana -26.1 | Indiana -24.5 | -1.6 | Indiana -24.0 → Indiana -24.5 with us | — · — | 5% | 41–15 | 56 | 57 | -1.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 6:30 PM | Fresno State Bulldogs @ Washington State Cougars | modelA Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5 ✓priceB Washington State Cougars -2.5 @50¢ ✗ | 26–6 | Fresno State -5.6 | Washington State -2.5 | -8.1 | flat | Washington State -2.5 @49¢ · Fresno State +2.5 @52¢ | 36% | 26–20 | 46 | 44 | +1.1 | |
| Sat 10/3 7:30 PM | Baylor Bears @ Arizona State Sun Devils | modelB Baylor Bears +3.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Baylor Bears +2.5 @41¢ ✓ | 55–19 | Baylor -3.6 | Arizona State -3.5 | -7.1 | Arizona State -3.0 → Arizona State -3.5 against | Arizona State -3.5 @48¢ · Baylor +3.5 @53¢ | 41% | 28–24 | 52 | 48 | +3.8 | |
| Sat 10/3 7:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats @ San Diego State Aztecs | modelB San Diego State Aztecs +7.5 @49¢ ✓priceA San Diego State Aztecs +6.5 @41¢ ✓ | 29–31 | Texas State -2.1 | Texas State -9.5 | +7.4 | Texas State -3.0 → Texas State -9.5 against | San Diego State +9.5 @48¢ · Texas State -9.5 @53¢ | 45% | 28–26 | 54 | 58 | -3.1 | |
| Sat 10/3 8:00 PM | Cincinnati Bearcats @ Arizona Wildcats | modelB Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5 @53¢ ✗priceB Cincinnati Bearcats +5.5 @44¢ ✗ | 7–34 | Arizona -2.4 | Arizona -7.0 | -4.6 | flat | Arizona -6.5 @54¢ · Cincinnati +7.5 @53¢ | 56% | 26–28 | 54 | 56 | -1.3 | |
| Sat 10/3 8:59 PM | San Jose State Spartans @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | priceB Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.5 @42¢ ✗ | 20–16 | Hawai'i -1.6 | Hawai'i -3.0 | -1.4 | flat | Hawai'i -2.5 @54¢ · San José State +3.5 @56¢ | 54% | 25–26 | 51 | 50 | +0.5 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.