Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
13 games · flags: live 2–7–0 (-5.02 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, September 13 · Week 1 · 13 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | priceB Tennessee Titans -3.5 @39¢ ✗ | 23–10 | TEN -1.8 | TEN -1.0 | +0.8 | TEN -2.5 → TEN -1.0 against | TEN -1.5 @49¢ · NYJ +1.5 @52¢ | 55% | 22–23 | 45 | 38 | +6.3 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | modelB Houston Texans +1.5 @53¢ ✗ | 36–31 | HOU -0.1 | BUF -1.0 | +1.1 | flat | HOU +1.5 @51¢ · BUF -1.5 @50¢ | 50% | 22–22 | 45 | 45 | -0.1 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | modelB Atlanta Falcons +6.5 @52¢ ✗priceB Atlanta Falcons +2.5 @43¢ ✗ | 13–20 | PIT -3.9 | PIT -6.5 | -2.6 | PIT -3.0 → PIT -6.5 against | PIT -6.5 @50¢ · ATL +6.5 @51¢ | 61% | 22–25 | 47 | 41 | +5.9 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | modelB Indianapolis Colts +3.5 @51¢ ✗ | 41–23 | BAL -0.1 | BAL -3.0 | +2.9 | BAL -3.5 → BAL -3.0 with us | IND +3.5 @56¢ · BAL -2.5 @55¢ | 50% | 25–25 | 50 | 48 | +1.6 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | — | 30–31 | DET -5.6 | DET -7.0 | -1.4 | flat | DET -6.5 @55¢ · NO +7.5 @55¢ | 66% | 20–25 | 45 | 50 | -4.5 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | — | 10–34 | JAC -7.2 | JAC -9.5 | -2.3 | JAC -7.5 → JAC -9.5 against | JAC -9.5 @49¢ · CLE +9.5 @52¢ | 70% | 18–26 | 44 | 40 | +3.5 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | modelB Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 @50¢ ✗ | 27–33 | CIN -2.3 | CIN -4.0 | -1.7 | CIN -3.5 → CIN -4.0 against | CIN -3.5 @51¢ · TB +4.5 @53¢ | 57% | 23–26 | 49 | 50 | -0.9 | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | — | 59–37 | CHI -1.2 | CHI -3.0 | +1.8 | CHI -2.5 → CHI -3.0 against | CAR +3.5 @57¢ · CHI -2.5 @55¢ | 46% | 23–22 | 46 | 48 | -2.0 | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | — | 22–24 | PHI -5.8 | PHI -6.0 | -0.2 | PHI -4.0 → PHI -6.0 against | PHI -5.5 @52¢ · WAS +6.5 @54¢ | 67% | 20–26 | 46 | 44 | +1.9 | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | modelB Arizona Cardinals +10.5 @54¢ ✓ | 26–14 | LAC -7.7 | LAC -9.5 | -1.8 | LAC -10.5 → LAC -9.5 with us | LAC -9.5 @49¢ · ARI +9.5 @52¢ | 71% | 18–26 | 44 | 47 | -3.4 | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | modelB Miami Dolphins +3.5 @52¢ ✗ | 13–27 | LV -1.2 | LV -3.0 | -1.8 | LV -3.5 → LV -3.0 with us | LV -2.5 @55¢ · MIA +3.5 @54¢ | 54% | 21–22 | 43 | 40 | +2.0 | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | — | 22–39 | MIN -0.9 | MIN -1.0 | -0.1 | flat | MIN -1.5 @53¢ · GB +1.5 @48¢ | 53% | 21–22 | 43 | 46 | -2.8 | |
| Sun 9/13 5:20 PM | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | modelB New York Giants +2.5 @47¢ ✓ | 20–28 | DAL -0.3 | DAL -3.0 | +2.7 | DAL -2.5 → DAL -3.0 against | NYG +3.5 @53¢ · DAL -2.5 @57¢ | 49% | 25–25 | 50 | 48 | +2.8 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.