Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
12 games · flags: live 4–5–0 (-1.26 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, October 18 · Week 6 · 12 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 10/18 6:30 AM | Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars | — | 34–31 | JAC -3.6 | JAC -2.5 | +1.1 | JAC -3.0 → JAC -2.5 against | JAC -2.5 @52¢ · HOU +2.5 @49¢ | 61% | 21–24 | 45 | 42 | +2.6 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | New York Jets @ New England Patriots | — | 19–26 | NE -6.0 | NE -7.5 | -1.5 | flat | NE -7.5 @48¢ · NYJ +7.5 @53¢ | 67% | 18–24 | 42 | 42 | -0.5 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | New Orleans Saints @ New York Giants | modelA New York Giants +1.5 @53¢ ✗ | 34–27 | NYG -3.0 | NO -1.0 | +4.0 | flat | NYG +1.5 @54¢ · NO -1.5 @47¢ | 59% | 21–24 | 46 | 46 | -0.4 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | modelA Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 @49¢ ✗ | 26–19 | TB -1.6 | PIT -2.5 | +4.1 | flat | TB +2.5 @51¢ · PIT -2.5 @50¢ | 55% | 22–23 | 45 | 38 | +6.3 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons | modelB Atlanta Falcons +3.5 @56¢ ✗priceB Chicago Bears -1.5 @48¢ ✓ | 31–23 | PK | CHI -1.0 | +1.0 | CHI -3.0 → CHI -1.0 with us | ATL +1.5 @52¢ · CHI -1.5 @49¢ | 50% | 22–22 | 45 | 52 | -6.9 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts | priceB Tennessee Titans +6.5 @47¢ ✓ | 26–20 | IND -8.4 | IND -6.5 | +1.9 | IND -7.0 → IND -6.5 against | IND -6.5 @51¢ · TEN +6.5 @50¢ | 73% | 19–28 | 47 | 44 | +2.6 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles | modelB Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @51¢ ✗ | 25–14 | PHI -2.2 | CAR -3.0 | +5.2 | PHI -1.5 → CAR -3.0 against | PHI +3.5 @54¢ · CAR -2.5 @56¢ | 57% | 22–24 | 47 | 39 | +7.7 | |
| Sun 10/18 10:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns | — | 10–13 | BAL -2.5 | BAL -3.0 | +0.5 | BAL -4.5 → BAL -3.0 with us | CLE +3.5 @53¢ · BAL -2.5 @57¢ | 43% | 24–21 | 45 | 40 | +5.8 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:05 PM | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams | modelA Arizona Cardinals +13.5 @53¢ ✓ | 18–16 | LAR -7.0 | LAR -13.5 | -6.5 | flat | LAR -13.5 @47¢ · ARI +13.5 @54¢ | 70% | 19–27 | 46 | 52 | -5.5 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:25 PM | Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs | priceA Los Angeles Chargers +8.5 @51¢ ✗ | 6–22 | KC -6.2 | KC -8.0 | -1.8 | flat | KC -7.5 @50¢ · LAC +8.5 @56¢ | 68% | 17–23 | 41 | 42 | -0.9 | |
| Sun 10/18 1:25 PM | Buffalo Bills @ Las Vegas Raiders | priceB Las Vegas Raiders +7.5 @61¢ ✓ | 33–30 | BUF -3.1 | BUF -4.5 | +1.4 | flat | LV +4.5 @50¢ · BUF -4.5 @51¢ | 41% | 27–24 | 51 | 54 | -2.8 | |
| Sun 10/18 5:20 PM | Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers | — | 13–23 | GB -1.9 | GB -1.0 | +0.9 | DAL -1.0 → GB -1.0 with us | GB -1.5 @48¢ · DAL +1.5 @53¢ | 56% | 23–25 | 49 | 54 | -4.6 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.