Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Saturday, September 5, 2026

30 games · flags: paper 6–2–0 (+4.59 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Sat Sep 5

Kick (PT)MatchupFlagsFinal Model linePinnacle lineΔ (home)Line move Kalshi spread (home · away)Home win%Model scoreModel totalPinnacle totalΔ total
Saturday, September 5 · Week 2 · 30 games
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMOhio Bobcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers —21–49 Nebraska -21.3Nebraska -23.5-2.2flat Nebraska -23.5 @52¢ · Ohio +23.5 @49¢89% 15–375246+5.8
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMCoastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers modelA Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +21.0 ✓24–31 West Virginia -13.8West Virginia -21.0-7.2West Virginia -21.5 → West Virginia -21.0 with us — · —79% 20–345555-0.2
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMOregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars modelB Oregon State Beavers +20.5 @48¢ ✓20–33 Houston -14.8Houston -20.5-5.7flat Houston -20.5 @54¢ · Oregon State +20.5 @47¢81% 17–324950-1.5
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMMiami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers modelB Miami (OH) RedHawks +16.5 @50¢ ✗14–59 Pittsburgh -11.9Pittsburgh -16.5-4.6flat Pittsburgh -16.5 @52¢ · Miami (OH) +16.5 @49¢76% 21–335347+6.5
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMLiberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes priceB James Madison Dukes -7.5 @41¢ ✗13–20 James Madison -8.2James Madison -6.0+2.2James Madison -6.5 → James Madison -6.0 against James Madison -5.5 @54¢ · Liberty +6.5 @52¢68% 22–305251+1.0
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMEast Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide —10–48 Alabama -20.4Alabama -28.0-7.6flat Alabama -27.5 @54¢ · East Carolina +28.5 @52¢88% 15–365152-1.4
Sat 9/5 9:00 AMNorth Texas Mean Green @ Indiana Hoosiers —16–52 Indiana -35.5Indiana -39.0-3.5Indiana -41.0 → Indiana -39.0 with us — · —98% 12–475956+3.3
Sat 9/5 9:30 AMBall State Cardinals @ Ohio State Buckeyes —3–56 Ohio State -54.3Ohio State -51.0+3.3flat Ohio State -50.5 @50¢ · Ball State +51.5 @54¢99% -4–504656-10.7
Sat 9/5 9:45 AMKent State Golden Flashes @ South Carolina Gamecocks —0–57 South Carolina -32.7South Carolina -36.5-3.8flat — · —97% 9–425154-2.7
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMMarshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions —0–45 Penn State -24.6Penn State -23.0+1.6Penn State -24.0 → Penn State -23.0 against Penn State -21.5 @54¢ · Marshall +23.5 @51¢93% 16–415752+5.0
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMBaylor Bears @ Auburn Tigers —16–17 Auburn -9.7Auburn -7.5+2.2flat Auburn -7.5 @49¢ · Baylor +7.5 @52¢72% 22–325559-4.5
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMTulane Green Wave @ Duke Blue Devils —3–17 Duke -11.2Duke -7.5+3.7flat Duke -7.5 @50¢ · Tulane +7.5 @51¢74% 23–345751+5.9
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMTexas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns —7–59 Texas -24.4Texas -29.5-5.1flat Texas -30.5 @47¢ · Texas State +30.5 @54¢92% 16–415760-3.0
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMBoston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats —15–34 Cincinnati -7.9Cincinnati -7.5+0.4flat Cincinnati -7.5 @50¢ · Boston College +7.5 @51¢68% 25–325750+7.5
Sat 9/5 12:30 PMBoise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks —27–34 Oregon -24.2Oregon -24.5-0.3flat — · —92% 14–385352+1.1
Sat 9/5 12:45 PMOklahoma State Cowboys @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane modelB Tulsa Golden Hurricane +13.5 @48¢ ✓10–24 Oklahoma State -8.0Oklahoma State -13.5+5.5flat Tulsa +13.5 @50¢ · Oklahoma State -13.5 @51¢32% 29–215058-9.0
Sat 9/5 1:15 PMNorthern Illinois Huskies @ Iowa Hawkeyes priceB Iowa Hawkeyes -35.5 @36¢ ✓0–40 Iowa -31.6Iowa -32.0-0.4flat Iowa -31.5 @50¢ · Northern Illinois +31.5 @51¢97% 7–384544+0.6
Sat 9/5 3:00 PMWyoming Cowboys @ Colorado State Rams —13–35 Colorado State -1.5Colorado State -3.0-1.5flat Colorado State -2.5 @54¢ · Wyoming +3.5 @55¢54% 21–234446-2.2
Sat 9/5 4:00 PMMissouri State Bears @ Texas A&M Aggies —0–50 Texas A&M -37.9Texas A&M -40.5-2.6flat — · —99% 8–465554+1.4
Sat 9/5 4:00 PMArkansas State Red Wolves @ Memphis Tigers modelB Memphis Tigers -10.5 @52¢ ✓24–42 Memphis -15.4Memphis -10.5+4.9flat Memphis -10.5 @51¢ · Arkansas State +10.5 @50¢82% 19–355453+0.9
Sat 9/5 4:00 PMFlorida International Panthers @ South Florida Bulls —9–19 South Florida -14.3South Florida -14.5-0.2flat South Florida -14.5 @50¢ · Florida International +14.5 @51¢80% 23–376052+9.0
Sat 9/5 4:00 PMWestern Michigan Broncos @ Michigan Wolverines —12–13 Michigan -21.9Michigan -27.5-5.6flat Michigan -27.5 @53¢ · Western Michigan +27.5 @48¢90% 12–344550-4.3
Sat 9/5 4:00 PMSam Houston State Bearkats @ Troy Trojans —21–24 Troy -19.8Troy -17.0+2.8flat Troy -16.5 @51¢ · Sam Houston +17.5 @56¢88% 17–365354-1.4
Sat 9/5 4:30 PMClemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers —10–51 LSU -8.8LSU -10.0-1.2flat LSU -9.5 @54¢ · Clemson +10.5 @54¢70% 19–274650-4.5
Sat 9/5 4:30 PMUL Monroe Warhawks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs —13–62 Mississippi State -32.2Mississippi State -28.5+3.7flat Mississippi State -28.5 @50¢ · UL Monroe +28.5 @51¢97% 11–435355-1.5
Sat 9/5 4:45 PMFlorida Atlantic Owls @ Florida Gators —21–66 Florida -20.9Florida -26.5-5.6flat Florida -26.5 @51¢ · Florida Atlantic +26.5 @51¢89% 17–385560-4.6
Sat 9/5 7:00 PMCentral Michigan Chippewas @ New Mexico Lobos modelB New Mexico Lobos -9.5 @55¢ ✓7–38 New Mexico -15.6New Mexico -10.0+5.6flat New Mexico -9.5 @55¢ · Central Michigan +10.5 @51¢82% 17–335046+3.1
Sat 9/5 7:00 PMUNLV Rebels @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors —21–6 UNLV -2.0UNLV -3.0+1.0flat Hawai'i +3.5 @56¢ · UNLV -2.5 @54¢45% 30–285756+0.9
Sat 9/5 7:30 PMUCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears —45–24 California -1.4UCLA -2.5+3.9flat California +2.5 @50¢ · UCLA -2.5 @51¢53% 25–265154-2.2
Sat 9/5 7:30 PMWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack —14–49 Western Kentucky -1.7Nevada -1.0-2.7Western Kentucky -1.5 → Nevada -1.0 against Nevada -1.5 @48¢ · Western Kentucky +1.5 @53¢46% 26–245052-2.1

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.