Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
52 games · flags: paper 16–20–0 (-1.06 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, September 26 · Week 5 · 52 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | UNLV Rebels @ Akron Zips | — | 38–10 | UNLV -12.4 | UNLV -13.5 | +1.1 | UNLV -12.5 → UNLV -13.5 against | Akron +13.5 @51¢ · UNLV -13.5 @50¢ | 23% | 32–20 | 52 | 52 | -0.2 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | — | 14–49 | Texas Tech -34.0 | Texas Tech -34.5 | -0.5 | Texas Tech -35.0 → Texas Tech -34.5 with us | Texas Tech -33.5 @52¢ · Sam Houston +33.5 @49¢ | 98% | 9–43 | 52 | 56 | -3.7 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Texas Longhorns @ Tennessee Volunteers | priceB Tennessee Volunteers +2.5 @40¢ ✗priceB Texas Longhorns -7.5 @36¢ ✗ | 20–17 | Texas -2.9 | Texas -5.5 | +2.6 | Texas -4.0 → Texas -5.5 against | Tennessee +5.5 @52¢ · Texas -5.5 @49¢ | 43% | 30–27 | 57 | 55 | +1.8 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Illinois Fighting Illini @ Ohio State Buckeyes | — | 19–42 | Ohio State -22.1 | Ohio State -27.0 | -4.9 | flat | Ohio State -27.5 @47¢ · Illinois +27.5 @54¢ | 90% | 15–37 | 51 | 54 | -2.7 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Colorado Buffaloes @ Baylor Bears | — | 13–23 | Baylor -12.2 | Baylor -9.5 | +2.7 | Baylor -10.0 → Baylor -9.5 against | Baylor -9.5 @50¢ · Colorado +9.5 @51¢ | 76% | 20–32 | 53 | 56 | -2.9 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Virginia Tech Hokies @ Boston College Eagles | — | 21–14 | Virginia Tech -15.6 | Virginia Tech -14.0 | -1.6 | flat | Boston College +14.5 @52¢ · Virginia Tech -13.5 @54¢ | 18% | 35–20 | 55 | 47 | +7.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Ball State Cardinals @ Kent State Golden Flashes | priceB Kent State Golden Flashes -7.5 @35¢ ✓ | 13–26 | Kent State -1.1 | Kent State -3.0 | -1.9 | flat | Kent State -2.5 @54¢ · Ball State +3.5 @55¢ | 53% | 26–27 | 54 | 51 | +2.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | San Diego State Aztecs @ Toledo Rockets | — | 16–41 | Toledo -0.4 | Toledo -3.0 | -2.6 | Toledo -2.5 → Toledo -3.0 against | Toledo -2.5 @53¢ · San Diego State +3.5 @55¢ | 51% | 23–23 | 46 | 52 | -5.9 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ Louisville Cardinals | — | 30–27 | Louisville -13.1 | Louisville -12.5 | +0.6 | flat | Louisville -11.5 @54¢ · Wake Forest +11.5 @47¢ | 78% | 21–34 | 55 | 58 | -2.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:00 AM | Colorado State Rams @ UTSA Roadrunners | modelB Colorado State Rams +12.5 @49¢ ✗ | 45–59 | UTSA -7.2 | UTSA -14.0 | -6.8 | UTSA -12.5 → UTSA -14.0 against | UTSA -13.5 @53¢ · Colorado State +14.5 @54¢ | 67% | 24–31 | 55 | 56 | -1.9 | |
| Sat 9/26 9:45 AM | South Alabama Jaguars @ Kentucky Wildcats | — | 21–45 | Kentucky -21.1 | Kentucky -20.5 | +0.6 | flat | Kentucky -20.5 @51¢ · South Alabama +20.5 @50¢ | 89% | 17–38 | 55 | 54 | +0.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 10:30 AM | UCLA Bruins @ Maryland Terrapins | priceB UCLA Bruins -3.5 @41¢ ✓ | 54–3 | Maryland -0.6 | UCLA -1.0 | +1.6 | UCLA -2.0 → UCLA -1.0 with us | Maryland +1.5 @50¢ · UCLA -1.5 @51¢ | 51% | 27–27 | 54 | 56 | -1.8 | |
| Sat 9/26 11:00 AM | Northern Illinois Huskies @ Georgia State Panthers | modelA Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 @49¢ ✗ | 14–35 | Georgia State -5.6 | Georgia State -10.5 | -4.9 | Georgia State -9.5 → Georgia State -10.5 against | Georgia State -10.5 @48¢ · Northern Illinois +10.5 @53¢ | 63% | 23–29 | 52 | 56 | -4.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 11:00 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Purdue Boilermakers | — | 49–10 | Notre Dame -26.4 | Notre Dame -27.5 | +1.1 | Notre Dame -27.0 → Notre Dame -27.5 against | Purdue +27.5 @50¢ · Notre Dame -27.5 @51¢ | 6% | 42–15 | 57 | 58 | -0.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:00 PM | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Wyoming Cowboys | — | 10–27 | Hawai'i -5.1 | Hawai'i -2.5 | -2.6 | Hawai'i -3.0 → Hawai'i -2.5 against | Wyoming +2.5 @51¢ · Hawai'i -2.5 @50¢ | 38% | 25–20 | 45 | 44 | +1.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | Utah Utes @ Iowa State Cyclones | priceB Utah Utes -13.5 @35¢ ✓ | 31–17 | Utah -7.9 | Utah -8.0 | +0.1 | Utah -9.5 → Utah -8.0 with us | Iowa State +9.5 @54¢ · Utah -7.5 @50¢ | 32% | 29–21 | 50 | 48 | +2.1 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | TCU Horned Frogs @ UCF Knights | — | 13–21 | TCU -2.5 | TCU -3.0 | +0.5 | TCU -3.5 → TCU -3.0 with us | UCF +3.5 @53¢ · TCU -2.5 @55¢ | 44% | 25–22 | 47 | 48 | -1.2 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | Oklahoma Sooners @ Georgia Bulldogs | — | 13–41 | Georgia -13.6 | Georgia -13.5 | +0.1 | Georgia -14.0 → Georgia -13.5 against | — · — | 79% | 17–31 | 48 | 44 | +3.9 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan Wolverines | modelB Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 @52¢ ✓priceB Michigan Wolverines -7.5 @39¢ ✗ | 20–19 | Iowa -0.3 | Michigan -5.5 | -5.8 | Michigan -4.5 → Michigan -5.5 against | Michigan -5.5 @50¢ · Iowa +5.5 @51¢ | 49% | 22–22 | 44 | 38 | +5.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | Ole Miss Rebels @ Florida Gators | modelB Florida Gators -2.5 @55¢ ✓priceA Florida Gators -7.5 @35¢ ✓priceB Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 @43¢ ✗ | 28–52 | Florida -6.2 | Florida -3.5 | +2.7 | Florida -3.0 → Florida -3.5 with us | Florida -3.5 @48¢ · Ole Miss +3.5 @53¢ | 64% | 26–32 | 58 | 59 | -1.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | New Mexico Lobos @ New Mexico State Aggies | modelB New Mexico Lobos -11.5 @54¢ ✓ | 42–18 | New Mexico -19.1 | New Mexico -10.5 | -8.6 | New Mexico -12.0 → New Mexico -10.5 against | New Mexico State +10.5 @50¢ · New Mexico -10.5 @51¢ | 13% | 34–15 | 48 | 48 | -0.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | UConn Huskies @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | priceB UConn Huskies +2.5 @42¢ ✗ | 21–24 | Miami (OH) -0.2 | Miami (OH) -3.5 | -3.3 | Miami (OH) -4.5 → Miami (OH) -3.5 with us | Miami (OH) -3.5 @49¢ · UConn +3.5 @52¢ | 51% | 29–29 | 57 | 52 | +5.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 12:30 PM | Boise State Broncos @ Western Michigan Broncos | — | 32–7 | Boise State -7.6 | Boise State -7.5 | -0.1 | Boise State -7.0 → Boise State -7.5 with us | — · — | 33% | 28–20 | 48 | 50 | -1.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 1:00 PM | Houston Cougars @ Georgia Southern Eagles | — | 42–28 | Houston -16.3 | Houston -17.0 | +0.7 | Houston -18.0 → Houston -17.0 with us | Georgia Southern +17.5 @51¢ · Houston -16.5 @54¢ | 17% | 35–19 | 54 | 56 | -2.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 1:15 PM | Vanderbilt Commodores @ Auburn Tigers | modelB Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 @52¢ ✓ | 15–21 | Auburn -5.4 | Auburn -9.5 | -4.1 | flat | Auburn -9.5 @52¢ · Vanderbilt +9.5 @49¢ | 62% | 25–30 | 56 | 55 | +0.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 2:00 PM | Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Michigan State Spartans | priceB Michigan State Spartans +1.5 @35¢ ✗ | 31–13 | Nebraska -9.2 | Nebraska -5.5 | -3.7 | flat | Michigan State +5.5 @49¢ · Nebraska -5.5 @52¢ | 29% | 31–22 | 53 | 49 | +3.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 2:00 PM | South Florida Bulls @ Bowling Green Falcons | modelB South Florida Bulls -17.5 @51¢ ✗ | 14–6 | South Florida -23.7 | South Florida -18.5 | -5.2 | South Florida -17.5 → South Florida -18.5 with us | Bowling Green +17.5 @50¢ · South Florida -17.5 @51¢ | 8% | 39–15 | 54 | 48 | +5.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 2:00 PM | Wisconsin Badgers @ Penn State Nittany Lions | modelB Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 @52¢ ✗ | 24–20 | Penn State -16.1 | Penn State -10.0 | +6.1 | flat | Penn State -9.5 @53¢ · Wisconsin +10.5 @54¢ | 83% | 16–32 | 47 | 44 | +3.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 3:00 PM | James Madison Dukes @ Old Dominion Monarchs | modelB James Madison Dukes -5.5 @52¢ ✓priceB James Madison Dukes -7.5 @41¢ ✓ | 46–20 | James Madison -11.6 | James Madison -6.0 | -5.6 | flat | Old Dominion +6.5 @52¢ · James Madison -5.5 @53¢ | 25% | 31–19 | 50 | 44 | +6.2 | |
| Sat 9/26 3:00 PM | Delaware Blue Hens @ Virginia Cavaliers | priceB Virginia Cavaliers -21.5 @41¢ ✓ | 3–42 | Virginia -19.5 | Virginia -20.0 | -0.5 | flat | Virginia -20.5 @49¢ · Delaware +20.5 @52¢ | 87% | 18–37 | 55 | 52 | +2.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 3:30 PM | Central Michigan Chippewas @ Miami Hurricanes | — | 3–52 | Miami -40.9 | Miami -41.0 | -0.1 | Miami -40.5 → Miami -41.0 against | Miami -41.5 @51¢ · Central Michigan +41.5 @50¢ | 99% | 3–44 | 47 | 54 | -6.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 3:30 PM | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Charlotte 49ers | — | 34–7 | Louisiana Ragin -12.5 | Louisiana Ragin -10.0 | -2.5 | flat | Charlotte +10.5 @53¢ · Louisiana Ragin -9.5 @53¢ | 23% | 33–20 | 53 | 49 | +4.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | Kansas State Wildcats @ Cincinnati Bearcats | priceB Kansas State Wildcats -7.5 @42¢ ✗ | 26–31 | Kansas State -4.3 | Kansas State -6.5 | +2.2 | flat | Cincinnati +6.5 @53¢ · Kansas State -6.5 @48¢ | 40% | 29–25 | 54 | 55 | -1.2 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Tulane Green Wave | — | 21–24 | Tulane -18.7 | Tulane -18.0 | +0.7 | Tulane -17.5 → Tulane -18.0 with us | Tulane -17.5 @52¢ · Southern Miss +18.5 @53¢ | 86% | 17–36 | 53 | 52 | +0.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ West Virginia Mountaineers | priceA West Virginia Mountaineers -5.5 @34¢ ✗ | 41–24 | Oklahoma State -1.2 | West Virginia -2.0 | -3.2 | West Virginia -2.5 → West Virginia -2.0 with us | West Virginia -1.5 @51¢ · Oklahoma State +2.5 @52¢ | 47% | 27–26 | 52 | 61 | -8.5 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | Kennesaw State Owls @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | priceB Arkansas State Red Wolves -7.5 @42¢ ✗ | 14–17 | Arkansas State -6.7 | Arkansas State -6.5 | +0.2 | Arkansas State -4.0 → Arkansas State -6.5 with us | Arkansas State -6.5 @50¢ · Kennesaw State +6.5 @51¢ | 65% | 22–29 | 52 | 52 | -0.8 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | South Carolina Gamecocks @ Alabama Crimson Tide | modelB South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5 @51¢ ✗ | 18–49 | Alabama -10.5 | Alabama -12.5 | -2.0 | Alabama -13.0 → Alabama -12.5 with us | Alabama -11.5 @53¢ · South Carolina +11.5 @48¢ | 73% | 22–32 | 54 | 54 | -0.2 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:00 PM | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks | modelB Jacksonville State Gamecocks -8.5 ✓ | 13–23 | Jacksonville State -14.1 | Jacksonville State -7.0 | +7.1 | Jacksonville State -8.5 → Jacksonville State -7.0 against | — · — | 80% | 20–34 | 53 | 51 | +2.1 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:30 PM | Texas A&M Aggies @ LSU Tigers | modelB Texas A&M Aggies +10.5 @55¢ ✗ | 6–35 | LSU -5.9 | LSU -8.5 | -2.6 | LSU -10.0 → LSU -8.5 with us | LSU -8.5 @50¢ · Texas A&M +8.5 @51¢ | 64% | 23–29 | 52 | 52 | +0.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:30 PM | Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans | — | 41–27 | USC -0.1 | Oregon -3.5 | +3.6 | Oregon -2.5 → Oregon -3.5 against | USC +3.5 @53¢ · Oregon -3.5 @48¢ | 50% | 29–29 | 58 | 61 | -2.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:30 PM | Arizona Wildcats @ Washington State Cougars | modelB Arizona Wildcats -9.5 @51¢ ✓ | 34–24 | Arizona -12.2 | Arizona -10.5 | -1.8 | Arizona -9.0 → Arizona -10.5 with us | Washington State +10.5 @50¢ · Arizona -10.5 @51¢ | 24% | 30–18 | 47 | 48 | -1.3 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:30 PM | Appalachian State Mountaineers @ NC State Wolfpack | — | 31–41 | NC State -12.9 | NC State -14.0 | -1.1 | flat | — · — | 78% | 21–34 | 55 | 55 | +0.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:30 PM | Troy Trojans @ Utah State Aggies | — | 10–21 | Utah State -0.6 | Utah State -3.0 | -2.4 | Utah State -2.5 → Utah State -3.0 against | Utah State -2.5 @54¢ · Troy +3.5 @56¢ | 51% | 24–25 | 49 | 47 | +2.4 | |
| Sat 9/26 4:45 PM | Missouri Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | modelB Missouri Tigers +6.5 @52¢ ✗priceB Mississippi State Bulldogs -7.5 @42¢ ✗ | 24–31 | Mississippi State -3.7 | Mississippi State -6.5 | -2.8 | flat | Mississippi State -6.5 @48¢ · Missouri +6.5 @53¢ | 59% | 26–30 | 56 | 59 | -2.8 | |
| Sat 9/26 5:00 PM | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Arkansas Razorbacks | modelB Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5 @55¢ ✗ | 6–34 | Arkansas -0.4 | Arkansas -7.0 | -6.6 | Arkansas -6.5 → Arkansas -7.0 against | Arkansas -6.5 @54¢ · Tulsa +7.5 @55¢ | 51% | 28–28 | 56 | 51 | +4.7 | |
| Sat 9/26 5:00 PM | Florida Atlantic Owls @ UL Monroe Warhawks | modelB Florida Atlantic Owls -13.5 @50¢ ✓ | 45–17 | Florida Atlantic -16.8 | Florida Atlantic -12.5 | -4.3 | Florida Atlantic -13.5 → Florida Atlantic -12.5 against | UL Monroe +12.5 @52¢ · Florida Atlantic -12.5 @49¢ | 16% | 37–21 | 58 | 58 | -0.1 | |
| Sat 9/26 6:00 PM | Missouri State Bears @ SMU Mustangs | — | 24–34 | SMU -32.8 | SMU -33.5 | -0.7 | SMU -35.0 → SMU -33.5 with us | — · — | 97% | 11–44 | 54 | 60 | -5.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 6:00 PM | Oregon State Beavers @ UTEP Miners | modelB Oregon State Beavers -9.5 @55¢ ✓priceB UTEP Miners +6.5 @35¢ ✗ | 33–7 | Oregon State -16.7 | Oregon State -10.5 | -6.2 | flat | UTEP +10.5 @49¢ · Oregon State -10.5 @52¢ | 16% | 35–18 | 53 | 56 | -3.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 7:00 PM | Rice Owls @ Fresno State Bulldogs | modelB Fresno State Bulldogs -13.5 @52¢ ✓ | 24–38 | Fresno State -18.2 | Fresno State -13.5 | +4.8 | Fresno State -14.5 → Fresno State -13.5 against | Fresno State -13.5 @49¢ · Rice +13.5 @52¢ | 86% | 15–33 | 48 | 44 | +3.6 | |
| Sat 9/26 7:30 PM | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Stanford Cardinal | modelB Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 @48¢ ✗ | 27–34 | Georgia Tech -8.8 | Georgia Tech -3.5 | -5.3 | flat | Stanford +3.5 @51¢ · Georgia Tech -3.5 @50¢ | 30% | 30–22 | 52 | 48 | +4.0 | |
| Sat 9/26 7:30 PM | Air Force Falcons @ Nevada Wolf Pack | — | 36–33 | Air Force -3.6 | Air Force -5.5 | +1.9 | Air Force -3.5 → Air Force -5.5 against | — · — | 42% | 29–26 | 55 | 50 | +4.7 | |
| Sat 9/26 8:00 PM | Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Washington Huskies | — | 27–24 | Washington -7.9 | Washington -10.0 | -2.1 | Washington -9.0 → Washington -10.0 against | Washington -9.5 @53¢ · Minnesota +10.5 @52¢ | 68% | 19–27 | 46 | 46 | +0.3 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.