Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Friday, October 16, 2026

3 games · flags: paper 1–1–0 (+0.27 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Fri Oct 16

Kick (PT)	Matchup	Flags	Final	Model line	Pinnacle line	Δ (home)	Line move	Kalshi spread (home · away)	Home win%	Model score	Model total	Pinnacle total	Δ total
Friday, October 16 · Week 8 · 3 games
Fri 10/16 4:30 PM	Memphis Tigers @ Tulane Green Wave	modelB Memphis Tigers -6.5 @53¢ ✗priceB Tulane Green Wave +5.5 @44¢ ✓	17–31	Memphis -13.1	Memphis -7.0	-6.1	Memphis -6.5 → Memphis -7.0 with us	Tulane +7.5 @57¢ · Memphis -6.5 @53¢	20%	32–19	52	54	-2.7
Fri 10/16 5:00 PM	Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers	—	35–32	Coastal Carolina -0.1	App State -1.5	+1.6	App State -1.0 → App State -1.5 against	— · —	50%	26–27	53	48	+4.5
Fri 10/16 5:00 PM	Washington Huskies @ Purdue Boilermakers	—	38–26	Purdue -2.9	Purdue -3.0	-0.1	flat	Purdue -2.5 @57¢ · Washington +3.5 @53¢	57%	25–28	53	50	+2.1

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.