Spread Scalp

Putting our money where our mouth is.

Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.

Heads up. Early season notice: the model is in its first weeks and is still calibrating. Projections lean on last season and preseason ratings until enough 2026 games are in, so treat every play as a work in progress. Results are logged and published either way — the track record starts here.

Saturday, October 10, 2026

45 games · flags: paper 18–14–0 (+5.76 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build

CFBCFB board · Sat Oct 10

Kick (PT)	Matchup	Flags	Final	Model line	Pinnacle line	Δ (home)	Line move	Kalshi spread (home · away)	Home win%	Model score	Model total	Pinnacle total	Δ total
Saturday, October 10 · Week 7 · 45 games
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights	modelB Army Black Knights -2.5 @56¢ ✓	17–20	Army -8.1	Army -3.5	+4.6	Army -3.0 → Army -3.5 with us	Army -3.5 @51¢ · Tulane +3.5 @50¢	70%	19–28	47	49	-1.9
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Indiana Hoosiers @ Nebraska Cornhuskers	priceA Nebraska Cornhuskers +3.5 @36¢ ✓	20–17	Indiana -5.2	Indiana -7.5	+2.3	flat	Nebraska +7.5 @49¢ · Indiana -7.5 @53¢	37%	30–25	54	48	+6.0
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Wake Forest Demon Deacons @ NC State Wolfpack	—	38–14	Wake Forest -2.0	Wake Forest -3.5	+1.5	Wake Forest -3.0 → Wake Forest -3.5 against	— · —	45%	29–27	56	58	-1.2
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Sacramento State Hornets @ Bowling Green Falcons	modelB Sacramento State Hornets +9.5 @53¢ ✗priceB Sacramento State Hornets +6.5 @45¢ ✗	10–38	Bowling Green -3.7	Bowling Green -9.0	-5.3	Bowling Green -7.0 → Bowling Green -9.0 against	Bowling Green -9.5 @48¢ · Sacramento State +9.5 @53¢	59%	20–24	44	44	+0.9
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Arizona Wildcats @ West Virginia Mountaineers	—	52–31	Arizona -6.1	Arizona -3.5	-2.6	Arizona -2.5 → Arizona -3.5 with us	West Virginia +3.5 @51¢ · Arizona -3.5 @50¢	35%	31–25	55	61	-5.6
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	UCF Knights @ Oklahoma State Cowboys	modelA UCF Knights +10.5 @56¢ ✗priceA UCF Knights +7.5 @42¢ ✗	28–42	Oklahoma State -4.0	Oklahoma State -10.0	-6.0	flat	Oklahoma State -9.5 @54¢ · UCF +10.5 @52¢	60%	22–26	48	54	-5.6
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	Texas A&M Aggies @ Missouri Tigers	—	6–27	Missouri -7.2	Missouri -3.5	+3.7	flat	Missouri -3.5 @50¢ · Texas A&M +3.5 @51¢	68%	23–30	53	50	+3.4
Sat 10/10 9:00 AM	North Carolina Tar Heels @ Pittsburgh Panthers	modelA Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 @52¢ ✗	21–17	Pittsburgh -13.6	Pittsburgh -3.5	+10.1	flat	Pittsburgh -3.5 @52¢ · North Carolina +3.5 @49¢	81%	18–32	50	47	+2.8
Sat 10/10 9:30 AM	Ball State Cardinals @ Northwestern Wildcats	—	14–45	Northwestern -40.6	Northwestern -36.0	+4.6	flat	— · —	99%	4–44	48	52	-4.2
Sat 10/10 9:45 AM	South Carolina Gamecocks @ Florida Gators	priceA South Carolina Gamecocks +7.5 @40¢ ✓	38–19	Florida -12.9	Florida -10.5	+2.4	Florida -14.0 → Florida -10.5 against	Florida -10.5 @51¢ · South Carolina +10.5 @50¢	80%	22–35	58	59	-1.4
Sat 10/10 10:00 AM	Old Dominion Monarchs @ Appalachian State Mountaineers	—	10–3	App State -8.0	App State -9.5	-1.5	App State -10.0 → App State -9.5 with us	App State -9.5 @53¢ · Old Dominion +9.5 @48¢	70%	23–31	55	48	+7.3
Sat 10/10 10:00 AM	Rice Owls @ East Carolina Pirates	—	12–28	East Carolina -12.7	East Carolina -10.0	+2.7	flat	East Carolina -9.5 @52¢ · Rice +10.5 @54¢	79%	19–32	51	46	+4.4
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Charlotte 49ers @ North Texas Mean Green	—	10–50	North Texas -26.7	North Texas -28.5	-1.8	North Texas -27.0 → North Texas -28.5 against	— · —	96%	17–43	60	58	+2.1
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Houston Cougars @ Kansas State Wildcats	—	35–16	Kansas State -1.6	Kansas State -2.5	-0.9	flat	Kansas State -2.5 @50¢ · Houston +2.5 @51¢	54%	26–27	53	56	-2.4
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	UCLA Bruins @ Oregon Ducks	modelA UCLA Bruins +12.5 @53¢ ✓priceB UCLA Bruins +9.5 @44¢ ✓	17–15	Oregon -6.2	Oregon -10.5	-4.3	Oregon -12.5 → Oregon -10.5 with us	Oregon -10.5 @50¢ · UCLA +10.5 @51¢	66%	25–32	57	58	-1.5
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Duke Blue Devils @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	—	25–28	Duke -10.4	Duke -6.5	-3.9	Duke -7.0 → Duke -6.5 against	Georgia Tech +6.5 @51¢ · Duke -6.5 @50¢	25%	32–22	54	44	+10.0
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	priceB Notre Dame Fighting Irish -41.5 @42¢ ✓	7–58	Notre Dame -42.1	Notre Dame -39.5	+2.6	Notre Dame -38.0 → Notre Dame -39.5 with us	Notre Dame -38.5 @53¢ · Stanford +38.5 @49¢	99%	6–48	54	54	-0.6
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Kent State Golden Flashes @ Western Michigan Broncos	modelB Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 @54¢ ✓	7–38	Western Michigan -19.4	Western Michigan -14.0	+5.4	flat	Western Michigan -13.5 @53¢ · Kent State +14.5 @54¢	89%	13–32	46	44	+2.1
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Central Michigan Chippewas @ Ohio Bobcats	modelB Ohio Bobcats -3.5 @51¢ ✓	14–31	Ohio -7.8	Ohio -2.5	+5.3	Ohio -3.5 → Ohio -2.5 against	Ohio -2.5 @49¢ · Central Michigan +2.5 @52¢	69%	21–29	50	46	+3.7
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Texas Longhorns @ Oklahoma Sooners	priceA Oklahoma Sooners +5.5 @38¢ ✓	24–27	Texas -9.6	Texas -7.5	-2.1	flat	Oklahoma +7.5 @50¢ · Texas -7.5 @51¢	27%	27–17	44	39	+5.4
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Illinois Fighting Illini @ Michigan State Spartans	—	38–37	Illinois -2.1	Illinois -2.5	+0.4	Illinois -3.5 → Illinois -2.5 with us	Michigan State +2.5 @48¢ · Illinois -2.5 @53¢	44%	26–24	51	48	+2.2
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Navy Midshipmen	—	26–34	Navy -0.6	Navy -2.5	-1.9	Navy -3.0 → Navy -2.5 with us	Navy -2.5 @49¢ · Tulsa +2.5 @52¢	52%	26–26	52	48	+4.0
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Virginia Tech Hokies @ California Golden Bears	modelB Virginia Tech Hokies -7.5 @52¢ ✗priceB California Golden Bears +7.5 @49¢ ✓	20–25	Virginia Tech -13.2	Virginia Tech -10.0	-3.2	Virginia Tech -7.5 → Virginia Tech -10.0 with us	California +10.5 @54¢ · Virginia Tech -9.5 @53¢	20%	33–20	54	53	+0.6
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Akron Zips	—	25–23	Eastern Michigan -5.3	Eastern Michigan -5.5	+0.2	Eastern Michigan -7.0 → Eastern Michigan -5.5 with us	Akron +5.5 @51¢ · Eastern Michigan -5.5 @50¢	37%	28–23	51	52	-0.7
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Ole Miss Rebels @ Vanderbilt Commodores	modelA Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5 @55¢ ✗priceB Vanderbilt Commodores +5.5 @38¢ ✗	52–17	Ole Miss -1.8	Ole Miss -9.5	+7.7	Ole Miss -10.0 → Ole Miss -9.5 with us	Vanderbilt +9.5 @50¢ · Ole Miss -9.5 @51¢	45%	31–29	60	55	+4.5
Sat 10/10 12:30 PM	Buffalo Bulls @ Toledo Rockets	—	23–8	Toledo -19.6	Toledo -18.5	+1.1	Toledo -20.0 → Toledo -18.5 against	Toledo -17.5 @54¢ · Buffalo +17.5 @47¢	90%	16–36	52	56	-3.6
Sat 10/10 12:45 PM	UConn Huskies @ Temple Owls	—	34–20	Temple -2.8	Temple -3.5	-0.7	Temple -4.0 → Temple -3.5 with us	Temple -3.5 @51¢ · UConn +3.5 @50¢	57%	27–30	57	54	+3.4
Sat 10/10 1:15 PM	Maryland Terrapins @ Ohio State Buckeyes	—	16–45	Ohio State -30.2	Ohio State -32.5	-2.3	Ohio State -35.0 → Ohio State -32.5 with us	Ohio State -33.5 @50¢ · Maryland +33.5 @52¢	97%	11–41	51	56	-5.0
Sat 10/10 1:15 PM	Tennessee Volunteers @ Arkansas Razorbacks	—	24–17	Tennessee -15.9	Tennessee -13.5	-2.4	flat	Arkansas +13.5 @49¢ · Tennessee -13.5 @52¢	15%	37–21	58	51	+7.0
Sat 10/10 3:00 PM	San Diego State Aztecs @ Oregon State Beavers	priceB San Diego State Aztecs +13.5 @46¢ ✗	14–66	Oregon State -14.0	Oregon State -16.5	-2.5	Oregon State -13.5 → Oregon State -16.5 against	Oregon State -16.5 @49¢ · San Diego State +16.5 @52¢	82%	17–31	48	53	-5.1
Sat 10/10 4:00 PM	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Marshall Thundering Herd	modelB Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5 @51¢ ✓	27–21	Marshall -0.1	Marshall -4.5	-4.4	Marshall -3.0 → Marshall -4.5 against	Marshall -4.5 @50¢ · Coastal Carolina +4.5 @51¢	50%	28–28	56	58	-2.2
Sat 10/10 4:00 PM	North Dakota State Bison @ UNLV Rebels	modelA North Dakota State Bison -2.5 @55¢ ✗	7–13	North Dakota State -9.5	North Dakota State -2.5	-7.0	North Dakota State -3.0 → North Dakota State -2.5 against	UNLV +2.5 @49¢ · North Dakota State -2.5 @52¢	27%	31–21	52	48	+4.3
Sat 10/10 4:00 PM	UAB Blazers @ Memphis Tigers	modelB Memphis Tigers -14.5 @52¢ ✓	13–38	Memphis -20.1	Memphis -14.5	+5.6	flat	Memphis -14.5 @52¢ · UAB +14.5 @49¢	90%	18–38	56	54	+2.4
Sat 10/10 4:00 PM	Nevada Wolf Pack @ UTEP Miners	modelB Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5 @50¢ ✓	30–13	Nevada -17.7	Nevada -10.0	-7.7	Nevada -9.5 → Nevada -10.0 with us	UTEP +10.5 @55¢ · Nevada -9.5 @51¢	13%	35–18	53	50	+3.0
Sat 10/10 4:00 PM	LSU Tigers @ Kentucky Wildcats	—	34–35	LSU -11.7	LSU -9.5	-2.2	LSU -10.5 → LSU -9.5 against	Kentucky +9.5 @51¢ · LSU -9.5 @50¢	23%	31–20	51	50	+0.3
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	James Madison Dukes @ Georgia Southern Eagles	modelB James Madison Dukes -9.5 @50¢ ✗priceB Georgia Southern Eagles +6.5 @42¢ ✓	27–24	James Madison -15.4	James Madison -7.5	-7.9	James Madison -9.5 → James Madison -7.5 against	Georgia Southern +7.5 @52¢ · James Madison -7.5 @49¢	16%	35–20	54	51	+3.4
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	USC Trojans @ Penn State Nittany Lions	—	31–23	Penn State -2.8	Penn State -2.5	+0.3	Penn State -1.0 → Penn State -2.5 with us	Penn State -2.5 @49¢ · USC +2.5 @52¢	57%	26–29	55	54	+1.0
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	Georgia Bulldogs @ Alabama Crimson Tide	—	20–17	Georgia -0.3	Alabama -2.5	-2.9	Alabama -1.5 → Alabama -2.5 against	Alabama -2.5 @50¢ · Georgia +2.5 @51¢	49%	29–29	58	52	+6.4
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	modelB Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3.5 @57¢ ✓	31–32	Louisiana Ragin -2.1	Louisiana Tech -3.0	-5.2	flat	Louisiana Tech -2.5 @55¢ · Louisiana Ragin +3.5 @54¢	44%	28–26	54	48	+5.9
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	Air Force Falcons @ Northern Illinois Huskies	modelB Air Force Falcons -10.0 ✓	28–7	Air Force -17.4	Air Force -7.0	-10.4	Air Force -10.0 → Air Force -7.0 against	— · —	13%	34–17	51	47	+4.4
Sat 10/10 4:30 PM	Syracuse Orange @ Virginia Cavaliers	modelA Virginia Cavaliers -9.5 @51¢ ✗	25–28	Virginia -15.2	Virginia -11.5	+3.7	Virginia -9.5 → Virginia -11.5 with us	Virginia -11.5 @49¢ · Syracuse +11.5 @52¢	84%	18–33	52	49	+2.6
Sat 10/10 5:00 PM	Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Purdue Boilermakers	modelB Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5 @51¢ ✗	13–41	Minnesota -7.2	Minnesota -2.5	-4.7	flat	Purdue +2.5 @48¢ · Minnesota -2.5 @53¢	32%	29–22	52	50	+1.3
Sat 10/10 5:00 PM	Kansas Jayhawks @ Utah Utes	modelB Utah Utes -14.5 @53¢ ✓priceB Kansas Jayhawks +13.5 @42¢ ✗	24–41	Utah -22.4	Utah -16.0	+6.4	Utah -15.0 → Utah -16.0 with us	Utah -14.5 @53¢ · Kansas +16.5 @53¢	93%	15–38	53	51	+2.2
Sat 10/10 7:30 PM	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ Arizona State Sun Devils	modelB Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21.5 @54¢ ✓	12–30	Arizona State -16.9	Arizona State -21.0	-4.1	Arizona State -20.5 → Arizona State -21.0 against	Arizona State -20.5 @53¢ · Hawai'i +21.5 @54¢	86%	17–34	50	51	-0.5
Sat 10/10 7:30 PM	Boise State Broncos @ Fresno State Bulldogs	—	38–31	Boise State -7.3	Boise State -6.5	-0.8	Boise State -5.5 → Boise State -6.5 with us	— · —	32%	28–21	49	48	+0.7

Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.