Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
14 games · flags: live 14–5–0 (+8.97 u) · finals and graded flags as of the last build
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, October 4 · Week 4 · 14 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 10/4 6:30 AM | Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders | modelB Washington Commanders +4.5 @53¢ ✗priceB Washington Commanders +2.5 @42¢ ✗ | 30–13 | IND -1.2 | IND -4.5 | +3.3 | IND -3.0 → IND -4.5 against | WAS +4.5 @50¢ · IND -4.5 @51¢ | 47% | 28–26 | 54 | 46 | +7.5 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | New York Jets @ Chicago Bears | priceB New York Jets +2.5 @43¢ ✗ | 12–23 | CHI -5.1 | CHI -3.5 | +1.6 | CHI -3.0 → CHI -3.5 with us | CHI -3.5 @50¢ · NYJ +3.5 @51¢ | 65% | 20–25 | 45 | 43 | +2.0 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles | modelB Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 @46¢ ✗ | 24–20 | PK | LAR -3.5 | +3.5 | LAR -2.5 → LAR -3.5 against | PHI +3.5 @51¢ · LAR -3.5 @50¢ | 50% | 21–21 | 43 | 43 | -0.2 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals | modelA Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 @51¢ ✓ | 22–17 | JAC -4.1 | CIN -2.5 | -6.6 | flat | CIN -2.5 @52¢ · JAC +2.5 @49¢ | 38% | 28–24 | 52 | 52 | +0.1 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills | modelB New England Patriots +7.5 @56¢ ✓ | 29–26 | BUF -4.1 | BUF -7.0 | -2.9 | flat | BUF -6.5 @53¢ · NE +7.5 @56¢ | 62% | 20–25 | 45 | 50 | -4.5 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants | modelB New York Giants +1.5 @51¢ ✓priceA New York Giants +2.5 @54¢ ✓ | 24–36 | NYG -2.5 | ARI -2.5 | +5.0 | NYG -1.5 → ARI -2.5 against | NYG +2.5 @51¢ · ARI -2.5 @50¢ | 57% | 21–24 | 45 | 44 | +0.7 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | modelA Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.5 @53¢ ✓ | 17–14 | TB -3.1 | GB -3.0 | +6.1 | GB -4.0 → GB -3.0 with us | TB +3.5 @57¢ · GB -2.5 @54¢ | 59% | 21–24 | 44 | 40 | +5.0 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans | modelB Dallas Cowboys +2.5 @49¢ ✓ | 34–30 | PK | HOU -3.0 | -3.0 | HOU -2.0 → HOU -3.0 against | HOU -2.5 @53¢ · DAL +3.5 @57¢ | 50% | 24–24 | 48 | 49 | -0.8 | |
| Sun 10/4 10:00 AM | Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens | modelB Tennessee Titans +11.5 @51¢ ✓priceB Tennessee Titans +9.5 @43¢ ✓ | 18–24 | BAL -7.8 | BAL -11.5 | -3.7 | flat | BAL -11.5 @50¢ · TEN +11.5 @51¢ | 72% | 18–26 | 45 | 42 | +2.3 | |
| Sun 10/4 1:05 PM | Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings | priceA Miami Dolphins +9.5 @45¢ ✓ | 10–15 | MIN -9.5 | MIN -10.0 | -0.5 | MIN -11.0 → MIN -10.0 with us | MIN -9.5 @51¢ · MIA +10.5 @54¢ | 76% | 17–27 | 44 | 38 | +5.2 | |
| Sun 10/4 1:25 PM | Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks | modelB Seattle Seahawks -6.5 @55¢ ✓priceA Los Angeles Chargers +6.5 @46¢ ✗ | 23–30 | SEA -9.1 | SEA -7.5 | +1.6 | SEA -6.5 → SEA -7.5 with us | SEA -7.5 @48¢ · LAC +7.5 @53¢ | 75% | 16–25 | 41 | 43 | -1.7 | |
| Sun 10/4 1:25 PM | Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers | modelB San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @52¢ ✓ | 14–24 | SF -5.3 | SF -2.5 | +2.8 | flat | SF -2.5 @54¢ · DEN +2.5 @47¢ | 65% | 22–27 | 49 | 48 | +0.1 | |
| Sun 10/4 1:25 PM | Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders | modelA Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 @51¢ ✓ | 30–27 | KC -1.0 | KC -4.5 | +3.5 | flat | LV +4.5 @50¢ · KC -4.5 @51¢ | 47% | 22–21 | 43 | 48 | -4.8 | |
| Sun 10/4 5:20 PM | Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers | modelB Carolina Panthers +3.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Carolina Panthers +2.5 @42¢ ✓ | 26–32 | CAR -0.6 | DET -4.0 | +4.5 | DET -3.0 → DET -4.0 against | CAR +4.5 @52¢ · DET -3.5 @53¢ | 52% | 25–26 | 51 | 52 | -0.3 | |
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.