Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day.
| Sport | System | W–L–P | Units | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB | V1_KALSHI_ML_PAPER | 1–0–0 | +1.27 | -0.001 |
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Model score | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ line | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | Home win% | Kalshi H / A | Flags | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wed 9/9 5:20 PM | New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks | 22–25 | -3.9 | -3.5 | +0.4 | 47 | 44 | +2.4 | 61% | 63¢ / 39¢ | ||
| Thu 9/10 5:35 PM | San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams | 23–27 | -3.9 | -3.5 | +0.4 | 49 | 48 | +1.2 | 61% | 65¢ / 37¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | New York Jets @ Tennessee Titans | 21–24 | -2.2 | -2.5 | -0.2 | 45 | 39 | +5.8 | 57% | 53¢ / 48¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Buffalo Bills @ Houston Texans | 21–24 | -2.2 | +1.0 | +3.2 | 45 | 44 | +0.9 | 57% | 51¢ / 50¢ | B Houston Texans +1.0B Houston Texans ML @51¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers | 22–25 | -3.5 | -3.0 | +0.5 | 47 | 42 | +4.4 | 60% | 63¢ / 38¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts | 23–27 | -3.2 | +3.5 | +6.7 | 50 | 48 | +2.6 | 59% | 37¢ / 64¢ | B Indianapolis Colts +3.5A Indianapolis Colts ML @38¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | New Orleans Saints @ Detroit Lions | 20–25 | -5.5 | -7.0 | -1.5 | 45 | 50 | -5.5 | 66% | 75¢ / 27¢ | B New Orleans Saints ML @28¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ Jacksonville Jaguars | 18–26 | -8.5 | -7.5 | +1.0 | 44 | 40 | +3.5 | 73% | 79¢ / 23¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals | 24–25 | -0.2 | -3.5 | -3.3 | 49 | 51 | -1.9 | 51% | 66¢ / 35¢ | B Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5A Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML @35¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 10:00 AM | Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers | 23–23 | +0.2 | +2.5 | +2.3 | 46 | 48 | -2.0 | 49% | 41¢ / 59¢ | B Carolina Panthers ML @42¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles | 20–26 | -6.2 | -4.0 | +2.2 | 46 | 44 | +1.9 | 68% | 69¢ / 32¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Chargers | 19–24 | -4.7 | -10.5 | -5.8 | 44 | 47 | -3.4 | 64% | 83¢ / 19¢ | B Arizona Cardinals +10.5A Arizona Cardinals ML @19¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Miami Dolphins @ Las Vegas Raiders | 22–21 | +0.8 | -3.5 | -4.3 | 43 | 40 | +2.0 | 48% | 63¢ / 38¢ | B Miami Dolphins +3.5A Miami Dolphins ML @38¢ | |
| Sun 9/13 1:25 PM | Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | 21–22 | -1.7 | -1.0 | +0.7 | 43 | 46 | -2.3 | 55% | 53¢ / 48¢ | ||
| Sun 9/13 5:20 PM | Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants | 24–26 | -1.4 | +2.5 | +3.9 | 50 | 48 | +2.8 | 54% | 41¢ / 61¢ | B New York Giants +2.5B New York Giants ML @41¢ | |
| Mon 9/14 5:15 PM | Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs | 21–21 | -0.5 | -3.0 | -2.5 | 42 | 43 | -0.5 | 51% | 56¢ / 45¢ | B Denver Broncos +3.0 |
Lines are from the home team's perspective (negative = home favored). Δ line > 0 means the model likes the home side more than the market. Kalshi prices are the ask for each team to win.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Model score | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ line | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | Home win% | Kalshi H / A | Flags | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | Ohio Bobcats @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 15–37 | -21.3 | -23.5 | -2.2 | 52 | 46 | +5.8 | 89% | 95¢ / 6¢ | B Ohio Bobcats ML @6¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ West Virginia Mountaineers | 20–34 | -13.8 | -21.0 | -7.2 | 55 | 55 | -0.2 | 79% | —¢ / —¢ | B Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +21.5 | |
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | Oregon State Beavers @ Houston Cougars | 17–32 | -14.8 | -20.5 | -5.7 | 49 | 50 | -1.5 | 81% | 92¢ / 8¢ | B Oregon State Beavers +20.5B Oregon State Beavers ML @8¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | Miami (OH) RedHawks @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 21–33 | -11.9 | -16.5 | -4.6 | 53 | 47 | +6.5 | 76% | —¢ / —¢ | B Miami (OH) RedHawks +16.5 | |
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | Liberty Flames @ James Madison Dukes | 22–30 | -8.2 | -5.5 | +2.7 | 52 | 51 | +1.0 | 68% | 68¢ / 33¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | East Carolina Pirates @ Alabama Crimson Tide | 15–36 | -20.4 | -28.0 | -7.6 | 51 | 52 | -1.4 | 88% | 96¢ / 5¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 9:00 AM | North Texas Mean Green @ Indiana Hoosiers | 12–47 | -35.5 | -41.0 | -5.5 | 59 | 57 | +2.3 | 98% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 9:30 AM | Ball State Cardinals @ Ohio State Buckeyes | -4–50 | -54.3 | -51.0 | +3.3 | 46 | 56 | -10.7 | 100% | 100¢ / 1¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 9:45 AM | Kent State Golden Flashes @ South Carolina Gamecocks | 9–42 | -32.7 | -36.5 | -3.8 | 51 | 54 | -2.7 | 97% | —¢ / 2¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Marshall Thundering Herd @ Penn State Nittany Lions | 16–41 | -24.6 | -24.0 | +0.6 | 57 | 52 | +5.0 | 93% | 95¢ / 6¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Baylor Bears @ Auburn Tigers | 22–32 | -9.7 | -7.5 | +2.2 | 55 | 59 | -4.5 | 72% | 73¢ / 28¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Tulane Green Wave @ Duke Blue Devils | 23–34 | -11.2 | -7.5 | +3.7 | 57 | 51 | +5.9 | 74% | 75¢ / 27¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats @ Texas Longhorns | 16–41 | -24.4 | -29.5 | -5.1 | 57 | 60 | -3.0 | 92% | 98¢ / 3¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Boston College Eagles @ Cincinnati Bearcats | 25–32 | -7.9 | -7.5 | +0.4 | 57 | 50 | +7.5 | 68% | 74¢ / 28¢ | B Boston College Eagles ML @28¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 12:30 PM | Boise State Broncos @ Oregon Ducks | 14–38 | -24.2 | -24.5 | -0.3 | 53 | 52 | +1.1 | 92% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 12:45 PM | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 29–21 | +8.0 | +13.5 | +5.5 | 50 | 58 | -9.0 | 32% | 18¢ / 83¢ | B Tulsa Golden Hurricane +13.5A Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML @18¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 1:15 PM | Northern Illinois Huskies @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 7–38 | -31.6 | -32.0 | -0.4 | 45 | 44 | +0.6 | 97% | 99¢ / 3¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 3:00 PM | Wyoming Cowboys @ Colorado State Rams | 21–23 | -1.5 | -3.0 | -1.5 | 44 | 46 | -2.2 | 54% | 60¢ / 42¢ | B Wyoming Cowboys ML @42¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 4:00 PM | Missouri State Bears @ Texas A&M Aggies | 8–46 | -37.9 | -40.5 | -2.6 | 55 | 54 | +1.4 | 99% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 4:00 PM | Arkansas State Red Wolves @ Memphis Tigers | 19–35 | -15.4 | -10.5 | +4.9 | 54 | 53 | +0.9 | 82% | 80¢ / 21¢ | B Memphis Tigers -10.5 | |
| Sat 9/5 4:00 PM | Florida International Panthers @ South Florida Bulls | 23–37 | -14.3 | -14.5 | -0.2 | 60 | 52 | +9.0 | 80% | 85¢ / 17¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 4:00 PM | Western Michigan Broncos @ Michigan Wolverines | 12–34 | -21.9 | -27.5 | -5.6 | 45 | 50 | -4.3 | 90% | 97¢ / 4¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 4:00 PM | Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Troy Trojans | 17–36 | -19.8 | -17.0 | +2.8 | 53 | 54 | -1.4 | 88% | 88¢ / 14¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 4:30 PM | Clemson Tigers @ LSU Tigers | 19–27 | -8.8 | -10.0 | -1.2 | 46 | 50 | -4.5 | 70% | 78¢ / 23¢ | B Clemson Tigers ML @23¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 4:30 PM | UL Monroe Warhawks @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | 11–43 | -32.2 | -28.5 | +3.7 | 53 | 55 | -1.5 | 97% | 97¢ / 4¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 4:45 PM | Florida Atlantic Owls @ Florida Gators | 17–38 | -20.9 | -26.5 | -5.6 | 55 | 60 | -4.6 | 89% | 96¢ / 5¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 7:00 PM | Central Michigan Chippewas @ New Mexico Lobos | 17–33 | -15.6 | -10.0 | +5.6 | 50 | 46 | +3.1 | 82% | 80¢ / 21¢ | B New Mexico Lobos -10.0 | |
| Sat 9/5 7:00 PM | UNLV Rebels @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 29–28 | +1.6 | +3.0 | +1.4 | 57 | 56 | +0.9 | 46% | 43¢ / 57¢ | ||
| Sat 9/5 7:30 PM | UCLA Bruins @ California Golden Bears | 25–26 | -1.4 | +2.5 | +3.9 | 51 | 54 | -2.2 | 53% | 45¢ / 56¢ | B California Golden Bears ML @46¢ | |
| Sat 9/5 7:30 PM | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Nevada Wolf Pack | 26–24 | +1.7 | -1.0 | -2.7 | 50 | 52 | -2.1 | 46% | 50¢ / 51¢ | ||
| Sun 9/6 1:00 PM | Washington State Cougars @ Washington Huskies | 14–34 | -20.1 | -23.0 | -2.9 | 48 | 50 | -2.4 | 88% | 93¢ / 8¢ | ||
| Sun 9/6 4:30 PM | Louisville Cardinals @ Ole Miss Rebels | 23–30 | -6.7 | -6.5 | +0.2 | 53 | 55 | -1.7 | 65% | 71¢ / 30¢ | B Louisville Cardinals ML @30¢ | |
| Sun 9/6 4:30 PM | Wisconsin Badgers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 12–36 | -23.6 | -20.5 | +3.1 | 48 | 46 | +1.3 | 92% | 93¢ / 9¢ | ||
| Mon 9/7 4:30 PM | SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles | 28–26 | +1.6 | +3.0 | +1.4 | 54 | 53 | +0.8 | 46% | 43¢ / 59¢ | ||
| Fri 9/11 4:30 PM | Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Boston College Eagles | 26–32 | -5.6 | — | — | 58 | — | — | 63% | 71¢ / 34¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Washington State Cougars @ Kansas State Wildcats | 18–32 | -13.7 | — | — | 50 | — | — | 79% | 90¢ / 12¢ | B Washington State Cougars ML @11¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Appalachian State Mountaineers @ East Carolina Pirates | 21–33 | -12.2 | — | — | 54 | — | — | 76% | 78¢ / 26¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | South Florida Bulls @ Army Black Knights | 27–28 | -1.4 | — | — | 55 | — | — | 53% | 55¢ / 50¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks @ Utah Utes | 25–38 | -13.6 | — | — | 63 | — | — | 79% | 78¢ / 26¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Arizona State Sun Devils @ Texas A&M Aggies | 17–35 | -17.2 | — | — | 52 | — | — | 84% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Old Dominion Monarchs @ Virginia Tech Hokies | 18–33 | -14.8 | — | — | 51 | — | — | 81% | 88¢ / 14¢ | B Old Dominion Monarchs ML @15¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Oregon Ducks @ Oklahoma State Cowboys | 35–15 | +19.3 | — | — | 50 | — | — | 13% | 12¢ / 90¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 AM | Penn State Nittany Lions @ Temple Owls | 38–18 | +20.0 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 12% | 8¢ / 93¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:45 AM | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Georgia Bulldogs | 9–42 | -32.5 | — | — | 51 | — | — | 97% | 99¢ / 2¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | UTSA Roadrunners @ Texas State Bobcats | 31–32 | -1.2 | — | — | 63 | — | — | 53% | 51¢ / 54¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | California Golden Bears @ Syracuse Orange | 28–25 | +2.9 | — | — | 53 | — | — | 43% | 49¢ / 55¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Utah State Aggies @ Washington Huskies | 16–40 | -24.1 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 92% | 93¢ / 8¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | 22–33 | -11.6 | — | — | 55 | — | — | 75% | 56¢ / 49¢ | A Minnesota Golden Gophers ML @57¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Rice Owls @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 8–48 | -40.2 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 99% | 98¢ / 3¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide @ Kentucky Wildcats | 30–20 | +9.4 | — | — | 50 | — | — | 29% | 23¢ / 80¢ | B Kentucky Wildcats ML @22¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Duke Blue Devils @ Illinois Fighting Illini | 27–32 | -5.7 | — | — | 59 | — | — | 63% | 75¢ / 29¢ | B Duke Blue Devils ML @28¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | UL Monroe Warhawks @ UAB Blazers | 20–34 | -14.2 | — | — | 55 | — | — | 80% | 77¢ / 26¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Arizona Wildcats @ BYU Cougars | 22–29 | -6.8 | — | — | 51 | — | — | 66% | 79¢ / 28¢ | B Arizona Wildcats ML @28¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | Maryland Terrapins @ UConn Huskies | 34–22 | +11.4 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 25% | 20¢ / 80¢ | B UConn Huskies ML @20¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:30 PM | UCF Knights @ Pittsburgh Panthers | 29–27 | +2.6 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 44% | 74¢ / 30¢ | A UCF Knights ML @27¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 12:45 PM | UNLV Rebels @ North Texas Mean Green | 36–28 | +7.3 | — | — | 64 | — | — | 33% | 34¢ / 67¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 1:15 PM | Delaware Blue Hens @ Vanderbilt Commodores | 22–37 | -15.6 | — | — | 59 | — | — | 82% | 93¢ / 8¢ | B Delaware Blue Hens ML @8¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 3:00 PM | Jacksonville State Gamecocks @ Ohio Bobcats | 25–27 | -1.9 | — | — | 52 | — | — | 55% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 3:00 PM | Buffalo Bulls @ Florida International Panthers | 26–25 | +1.4 | — | — | 51 | — | — | 47% | 69¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 3:00 PM | Memphis Tigers @ Boise State Broncos | 25–30 | -5.0 | — | — | 55 | — | — | 62% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:00 PM | South Alabama Jaguars @ Tulane Green Wave | 21–33 | -11.4 | — | — | 54 | — | — | 75% | 87¢ / 29¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:00 PM | Tennessee Volunteers @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | 34–25 | +9.1 | — | — | 59 | — | — | 30% | 21¢ / 82¢ | B Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML @22¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 4:00 PM | Bowling Green Falcons @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | 13–36 | -23.9 | — | — | 49 | — | — | 92% | 97¢ / 4¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:00 PM | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders @ Marshall Thundering Herd | 19–38 | -18.8 | — | — | 56 | — | — | 87% | —¢ / —¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:00 PM | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Sam Houston State Bearkats | 34–19 | +15.2 | — | — | 53 | — | — | 19% | 19¢ / 81¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:15 PM | San Diego State Aztecs @ UCLA Bruins | 20–25 | -4.8 | — | — | 46 | — | — | 61% | 80¢ / 25¢ | A San Diego State Aztecs ML @23¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 4:30 PM | Iowa State Cyclones @ Iowa Hawkeyes | 15–32 | -17.0 | — | — | 48 | — | — | 84% | 85¢ / 17¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:30 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes @ Texas Longhorns | 27–20 | +7.3 | — | — | 47 | — | — | 33% | 54¢ / 48¢ | A Ohio State Buckeyes ML @48¢ | |
| Sat 9/12 4:30 PM | Georgia Southern Eagles @ Clemson Tigers | 16–40 | -23.9 | — | — | 55 | — | — | 92% | 96¢ / 8¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 4:30 PM | Texas Tech Red Raiders @ Oregon State Beavers | 37–13 | +23.5 | — | — | 50 | — | — | 8% | 5¢ / 96¢ | ||
| Sat 9/12 9:00 PM | New Mexico State Aggies @ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors | 19–33 | -13.9 | — | — | 52 | — | — | 79% | 83¢ / 34¢ |
Lines are from the home team's perspective (negative = home favored). Δ line > 0 means the model likes the home side more than the market. Kalshi prices are the ask for each team to win.