Putting our money where our mouth is.
Model projections vs. the sharp books and Kalshi, every game day — every play graded and published.
We judge the model by CLV — did the play beat Pinnacle's closing line? — not by win–loss, until there are 50+ graded plays. A win–loss record over a dozen plays is noise. Model plays and price plays are scored separately because price plays buy a number off the line on purpose.
| Sport | System | W–L–P | Units | Avg CLV | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CFB | Model plays (vs market line) · paper | 96–81–1 | +5.80 | +0.261 | |
| CFB | Model moneyline · paper | 1–0–0 | +1.27 | -0.001 | |
| CFB | Price plays (Kalshi vs market) · paper | 63–67–0 | +20.13 | -2.119 | |
| CFB | all systems · CLV split | 160–148–1 | +27.20 | model +0.260 (179) · price -2.119 (130) | |
| NFL | Model plays (vs market line) | 32–33–0 | -4.55 | +0.092 | |
| NFL | Price plays (Kalshi vs market) | 16–23–0 | -3.97 | -1.359 | |
| NFL | all systems · CLV split | 48–56–0 | -8.52 | model +0.092 (65) · price -1.359 (39) | |
Avg CLV is in points vs Pinnacle's close. Price plays sit off the line by design, so read their CLV row as a price check, not a point edge.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunday, November 1 · Week 8 · 12 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars | modelB Indianapolis Colts +7.5 @51¢ ✗priceA Indianapolis Colts +7.5 @51¢ ✗ | 7–42 | JAC -4.9 | JAC -10.5 | -5.6 | JAC -7.5 → JAC -10.5 against | JAC -10.5 @48¢ · IND +10.5 @53¢ | 64% | 22–27 | 49 | 46 | +2.9 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions | modelA Minnesota Vikings +3.5 @54¢ ✗ | 15–19 | MIN -1.9 | DET -3.5 | -5.4 | DET -3.0 → DET -3.5 against | DET -3.5 @48¢ · MIN +3.5 @53¢ | 44% | 25–23 | 48 | 46 | +1.7 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | — | 0–16 | TB -4.2 | TB -2.5 | +1.7 | TB -2.0 → TB -2.5 with us | TB -2.5 @49¢ · ATL +2.5 @52¢ | 62% | 21–25 | 47 | 43 | +3.8 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Arizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys | — | 33–30 | DAL -6.0 | DAL -7.5 | -1.5 | flat | DAL -7.5 @48¢ · ARI +7.5 @53¢ | 67% | 22–28 | 50 | 54 | -4.4 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Jets | priceB New York Jets -2.5 @44¢ ✗ | 38–33 | NYJ -0.3 | NYJ -1.0 | -0.7 | flat | NYJ -1.5 @51¢ · LV +1.5 @50¢ | 51% | 22–23 | 45 | 46 | -1.6 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Tennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals | modelB Tennessee Titans +10.5 @52¢ ✓priceA Tennessee Titans +6.5 @36¢ ✗ | 36–43 | CIN -7.6 | CIN -13.0 | -5.4 | CIN -10.5 → CIN -13.0 against | CIN -13.5 @48¢ · TEN +13.5 @53¢ | 71% | 20–28 | 49 | 46 | +2.5 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers | — | 6–27 | PIT -3.6 | PIT -3.5 | +0.1 | PIT -4.0 → PIT -3.5 against | PIT -3.5 @50¢ · CLE +3.5 @51¢ | 61% | 19–23 | 42 | 38 | +3.7 | |
| Sun 11/1 11:00 AM | Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills | — | 10–36 | BUF -4.6 | BUF -3.5 | +1.1 | flat | BUF -3.5 @47¢ · BAL +3.5 @54¢ | 63% | 23–27 | 50 | 54 | -4.3 | |
| Sun 11/1 2:05 PM | Los Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams | — | 9–24 | LAR -5.9 | LAR -6.5 | -0.6 | LAR -7.5 → LAR -6.5 with us | LAR -6.5 @50¢ · LAC +6.5 @51¢ | 67% | 17–23 | 40 | 46 | -5.5 | |
| Sun 11/1 2:25 PM | New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins | modelB Miami Dolphins +7.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Miami Dolphins +6.5 @45¢ ✓ | 24–19 | NE -3.5 | NE -7.0 | +3.5 | NE -7.5 → NE -7.0 with us | MIA +7.5 @54¢ · NE -6.5 @54¢ | 40% | 23–20 | 43 | 42 | +1.5 | |
| Sun 11/1 2:25 PM | Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos | modelB Denver Broncos +1.5 @53¢ ✓priceA Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 @48¢ ✗ | 24–28 | DEN -1.7 | KC -1.0 | +2.7 | KC -1.5 → KC -1.0 with us | DEN +1.5 @54¢ · KC -1.5 @47¢ | 55% | 21–23 | 44 | 42 | +3.0 | |
| Sun 11/1 6:20 PM | Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders | modelA Philadelphia Eagles +4.5 @48¢ ✗priceA Philadelphia Eagles +5.5 @50¢ ✗ | 10–27 | WAS -0.1 | WAS -5.5 | -5.3 | WAS -4.5 → WAS -5.5 against | WAS -5.5 @51¢ · PHI +5.5 @50¢ | 50% | 23–24 | 47 | 40 | +6.5 | |
| Monday, November 2 · Week 8 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Mon 11/2 6:20 PM | Chicago Bears @ Seattle Seahawks | modelB Seattle Seahawks -3.5 ✗ | 34–17 | SEA -6.0 | SEA -3.5 | +2.5 | flat | SEA -3.5 @48¢ · CHI +3.5 @53¢ | 67% | 19–25 | 44 | 46 | -2.7 | |
| Thursday, November 5 · Week 9 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Thu 11/5 6:15 PM | Jacksonville Jaguars @ Baltimore Ravens | modelA Baltimore Ravens +10.5 @57¢ ✗priceB Baltimore Ravens +6.5 @37¢ ✗ | 33–10 | JAC -5.1 | JAC -10.5 | +5.4 | JAC -10.0 → JAC -10.5 against | BAL +10.5 @54¢ · JAC -10.5 @47¢ | 35% | 26–21 | 48 | 39 | +8.6 | |
| Sunday, November 8 · Week 9 · 13 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sun 11/8 7:30 AM | Cincinnati Bengals @ Atlanta Falcons | — | CIN -4.0 | CIN -3.0 | -1.0 | flat | ATL +3.5 @55¢ · CIN -2.5 @57¢ | 38% | 27–23 | 50 | 53 | -3.5 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers | — | DEN -2.2 | DEN -3.0 | +0.8 | flat | CAR +3.5 @59¢ · DEN -2.5 @52¢ | 43% | 25–22 | 47 | 44 | +2.4 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | Dallas Cowboys @ Indianapolis Colts | modelA Indianapolis Colts +5.5 @49¢ | DAL -0.7 | DAL -5.5 | +4.8 | flat | IND +5.5 @51¢ · DAL -5.5 @50¢ | 48% | 27–26 | 52 | 52 | +0.3 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins | modelA Miami Dolphins +7.5 @56¢ now +7.0 | DET -3.5 | DET -7.0 | +3.5 | DET -7.5 → DET -7.0 with us | MIA +7.5 @56¢ · DET -6.5 @53¢ | 40% | 26–22 | 48 | 50 | -1.8 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | Los Angeles Rams @ Washington Commanders | modelB Washington Commanders +6.5 @54¢ now +4.5 | LAR -3.5 | LAR -4.5 | +1.0 | LAR -6.0 → LAR -4.5 with us | WAS +4.5 @51¢ · LAR -4.5 @50¢ | 40% | 25–22 | 47 | 48 | -1.2 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | New York Jets @ Kansas City Chiefs | modelA New York Jets +10.5 @56¢ now +10.0priceA New York Jets +6.5 @36¢ | KC -6.1 | KC -10.0 | -3.9 | flat | KC -9.5 @52¢ · NYJ +10.5 @55¢ | 67% | 18–24 | 42 | 48 | -6.2 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | Cleveland Browns @ New Orleans Saints | — | NO -2.4 | NO -3.0 | -0.6 | flat | NO -2.5 @56¢ · CLE +3.5 @54¢ | 57% | 20–22 | 42 | 42 | -0.2 | ||
| Sun 11/8 11:00 AM | New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles | modelB Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 @53¢ now +3.0 | NYG -0.4 | NYG -3.0 | +2.6 | flat | PHI +3.5 @55¢ · NYG -2.5 @57¢ | 49% | 22–22 | 45 | 38 | +6.1 | ||
| Sun 11/8 2:05 PM | Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers | priceA Los Angeles Chargers +4.5 @48¢ | HOU -3.0 | HOU -5.5 | +2.5 | HOU -4.5 → HOU -5.5 against | LAC +5.5 @50¢ · HOU -5.5 @51¢ | 41% | 22–19 | 41 | 40 | +1.0 | ||
| Sun 11/8 2:05 PM | Las Vegas Raiders @ San Francisco 49ers | modelB Las Vegas Raiders +10.5 @56¢ now +10.0priceA Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 @38¢ | SF -7.4 | SF -10.0 | -2.6 | flat | SF -9.5 @51¢ · LV +10.5 @55¢ | 71% | 21–29 | 50 | 52 | -2.8 | ||
| Sun 11/8 2:25 PM | Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks | priceA Arizona Cardinals +7.5 @48¢ | SEA -10.2 | SEA -8.5 | +1.7 | SEA -11.0 → SEA -8.5 against | SEA -9.5 @49¢ · ARI +9.5 @52¢ | 78% | 17–28 | 45 | 40 | +5.5 | ||
| Sun 11/8 2:25 PM | Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots | — | NE -3.1 | NE -3.0 | +0.1 | NE -2.5 → NE -3.0 with us | NE -2.5 @57¢ · GB +3.5 @54¢ | 59% | 20–23 | 44 | 46 | -1.9 | ||
| Sun 11/8 6:20 PM | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Chicago Bears | modelA Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 @52¢ | CHI -2.0 | CHI -6.5 | -4.5 | flat | CHI -6.5 @48¢ · TB +6.5 @53¢ | 56% | 22–24 | 45 | 48 | -2.3 | ||
| Monday, November 9 · Week 9 · 1 game | ||||||||||||||
| Mon 11/9 6:15 PM | Buffalo Bills @ Minnesota Vikings | modelB Minnesota Vikings +3.0 | BUF -0.3 | BUF -3.0 | +2.7 | flat | MIN +3.5 @54¢ · BUF -2.5 @57¢ | 49% | 23–23 | 46 | 44 | +2.4 | ||
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.
| Kick (PT) | Matchup | Flags | Final | Model line | Pinnacle line | Δ (home) | Line move | Kalshi spread (home · away) | Home win% | Model score | Model total | Pinnacle total | Δ total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saturday, October 31 · Week 10 · 47 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Illinois Fighting Illini @ Maryland Terrapins | modelB Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5 @54¢ ✓ | 20–17 | Illinois -7.3 | Illinois -2.5 | -4.8 | flat | Maryland +2.5 @49¢ · Illinois -2.5 @52¢ | 32% | 31–24 | 55 | 54 | +0.5 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Arizona Wildcats @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | — | 26–34 | Texas Tech -3.6 | Texas Tech -3.5 | +0.1 | Texas Tech -4.0 → Texas Tech -3.5 against | Texas Tech -3.5 @52¢ · Arizona +3.5 @49¢ | 59% | 25–29 | 54 | 54 | -0.0 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | SMU Mustangs @ Syracuse Orange | priceB Syracuse Orange +9.5 @49¢ ✓ | 27–30 | SMU -10.4 | SMU -9.5 | -0.9 | SMU -9.0 → SMU -9.5 with us | Syracuse +9.5 @51¢ · SMU -9.5 @50¢ | 25% | 32–22 | 54 | 58 | -3.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | UAB Blazers @ South Florida Bulls | modelB South Florida Bulls -7.5 @51¢ ✓priceA UAB Blazers +7.5 @50¢ ✗ | 10–30 | South Florida -12.1 | South Florida -7.5 | +4.6 | flat | South Florida -7.5 @49¢ · UAB +7.5 @52¢ | 78% | 19–32 | 51 | 42 | +9.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Boston College Eagles @ Duke Blue Devils | — | 2–47 | Duke -8.1 | Duke -7.0 | +1.1 | Duke -7.5 → Duke -7.0 against | Duke -6.5 @54¢ · Boston College +7.5 @54¢ | 70% | 22–30 | 52 | 49 | +2.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Wisconsin Badgers @ Iowa Hawkeyes | — | 0–30 | Iowa -1.7 | Iowa -2.5 | -0.8 | Iowa -3.5 → Iowa -2.5 with us | Iowa -2.5 @51¢ · Wisconsin +2.5 @50¢ | 54% | 20–21 | 41 | 37 | +4.3 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | California Golden Bears @ NC State Wolfpack | — | 10–31 | NC State -7.8 | NC State -9.5 | -1.7 | NC State -8.5 → NC State -9.5 against | — · — | 69% | 24–32 | 56 | 57 | -1.1 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Navy Midshipmen | — | 35–13 | Notre Dame -27.0 | Notre Dame -30.5 | +3.5 | Notre Dame -29.5 → Notre Dame -30.5 against | Navy +30.5 @48¢ · Notre Dame -30.5 @53¢ | 4% | 42–15 | 57 | 56 | +0.9 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:00 AM | Bowling Green Falcons @ Western Michigan Broncos | modelB Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 @51¢ ✗priceA Bowling Green Falcons +13.5 @45¢ ✓ | 10–23 | Western Michigan -17.7 | Western Michigan -13.5 | +4.2 | Western Michigan -14.0 → Western Michigan -13.5 against | Western Michigan -13.5 @55¢ · Bowling Green +13.5 @46¢ | 87% | 14–32 | 46 | 45 | +1.5 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:30 AM | Michigan Wolverines @ Rutgers Scarlet Knights | — | 28–21 | Michigan -12.9 | Michigan -16.5 | +3.6 | Michigan -14.0 → Michigan -16.5 against | Rutgers +16.5 @51¢ · Michigan -16.5 @50¢ | 20% | 32–19 | 50 | 46 | +3.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 9:45 AM | Auburn Tigers @ Ole Miss Rebels | — | 15–45 | Ole Miss -10.6 | Ole Miss -11.5 | -0.9 | Ole Miss -13.0 → Ole Miss -11.5 with us | Ole Miss -11.5 @49¢ · Auburn +11.5 @52¢ | 75% | 22–32 | 54 | 58 | -4.7 | |
| Sat 10/31 10:00 AM | Marshall Thundering Herd @ Old Dominion Monarchs | modelA Old Dominion Monarchs +3.5 @56¢ ✗ | 36–23 | Old Dominion -0.2 | Marshall -3.0 | +3.2 | flat | Old Dominion +3.5 @56¢ · Marshall -2.5 @53¢ | 51% | 25–25 | 50 | 46 | +3.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 11:00 AM | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers @ Georgia State Panthers | — | 31–20 | Georgia State -5.7 | Georgia State -4.0 | +1.7 | Georgia State -6.5 → Georgia State -4.0 against | — · — | 64% | 26–31 | 57 | 56 | +1.2 | |
| Sat 10/31 11:00 AM | Kansas State Wildcats @ Colorado Buffaloes | modelB Kansas State Wildcats -2.5 @53¢ ✗ | 24–27 | Kansas State -8.0 | Colorado -3.0 | -11.0 | Kansas State -3.0 → Colorado -3.0 against | Colorado -2.5 @54¢ · Kansas State +3.5 @55¢ | 30% | 29–21 | 50 | 47 | +3.3 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:00 PM | UConn Huskies @ Air Force Falcons | — | 26–35 | Air Force -1.7 | UConn -1.0 | +2.7 | Air Force -3.0 → UConn -1.0 against | Air Force +1.5 @52¢ · UConn -1.5 @49¢ | 54% | 28–30 | 57 | 52 | +4.9 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:00 PM | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ South Alabama Jaguars | — | 35–20 | Louisiana Tech -5.5 | Louisiana Tech -6.0 | +0.5 | Louisiana Tech -5.5 → Louisiana Tech -6.0 against | South Alabama +6.5 @51¢ · Louisiana Tech -5.5 @53¢ | 36% | 31–26 | 57 | 58 | -1.4 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:00 PM | Temple Owls @ East Carolina Pirates | — | 9–17 | East Carolina -5.1 | East Carolina -5.0 | +0.1 | East Carolina -6.0 → East Carolina -5.0 against | East Carolina -4.5 @47¢ · Temple +5.5 @55¢ | 63% | 24–29 | 54 | 50 | +3.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:15 PM | Stanford Cardinal @ Louisville Cardinals | modelB Louisville Cardinals -21.5 @54¢ ✓ | 24–52 | Louisville -26.7 | Louisville -22.5 | +4.2 | flat | Louisville -21.5 @52¢ · Stanford +21.5 @49¢ | 96% | 15–41 | 56 | 60 | -4.0 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Indiana Hoosiers | — | 16–23 | Indiana -23.5 | Indiana -20.5 | +3.0 | Indiana -20.0 → Indiana -20.5 with us | Indiana -20.5 @52¢ · Minnesota +20.5 @49¢ | 94% | 11–35 | 46 | 40 | +6.0 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Florida Gators @ Georgia Bulldogs | modelB Georgia Bulldogs -11.5 @50¢ ✓ | 8–27 | Georgia -15.8 | Georgia -12.0 | +3.8 | Georgia -11.5 → Georgia -12.0 with us | Georgia -11.5 @51¢ · Florida +11.5 @50¢ | 85% | 20–36 | 57 | 56 | +0.0 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ UL Monroe Warhawks | — | 35–21 | Southern Miss -4.1 | Southern Miss -3.5 | -0.6 | Southern Miss -3.0 → Southern Miss -3.5 with us | UL Monroe +3.5 @52¢ · Southern Miss -3.5 @49¢ | 40% | 30–26 | 55 | 56 | -0.2 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Northwestern Wildcats @ Oregon Ducks | — | 26–34 | Oregon -2.5 | Oregon -3.5 | -1.0 | flat | Oregon -3.5 @52¢ · Northwestern +3.5 @49¢ | 56% | 23–26 | 49 | 48 | +1.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Kansas Jayhawks @ TCU Horned Frogs | priceB Kansas Jayhawks +4.5 @48¢ ✗ | 16–22 | TCU -6.0 | TCU -6.5 | -0.5 | TCU -4.5 → TCU -6.5 against | TCU -6.5 @50¢ · Kansas +6.5 @51¢ | 65% | 21–27 | 48 | 45 | +3.3 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Colorado State Rams @ Utah State Aggies | priceB Colorado State Rams +6.5 @48¢ ✗ | 14–31 | Utah State -4.9 | Utah State -7.5 | -2.6 | Utah State -6.0 → Utah State -7.5 against | Utah State -7.5 @51¢ · Colorado State +7.5 @50¢ | 62% | 26–31 | 58 | 62 | -4.4 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Arizona State Sun Devils @ BYU Cougars | modelB BYU Cougars -14.5 @49¢ ✗priceB Arizona State Sun Devils +14.5 @46¢ ✓ | 20–27 | BYU -18.3 | BYU -16.5 | +1.8 | BYU -15.0 → BYU -16.5 with us | BYU -16.5 @51¢ · Arizona State +16.5 @50¢ | 88% | 16–35 | 51 | 48 | +2.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | UTEP Miners @ North Dakota State Bison | modelB North Dakota State Bison -23.5 @53¢ ✓ | 7–31 | North Dakota State -35.1 | North Dakota State -24.0 | +11.1 | North Dakota State -26.0 → North Dakota State -24.0 against | North Dakota State -23.5 @53¢ · UTEP +24.5 @52¢ | 99% | 7–42 | 49 | 43 | +5.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:30 PM | Florida International Panthers @ Liberty Flames | modelB Liberty Flames -13.5 @55¢ ✓ | 10–49 | Liberty -18.0 | Liberty -14.0 | +4.0 | flat | Liberty -13.5 @52¢ · Florida International +14.5 @55¢ | 88% | 15–33 | 48 | 45 | +2.9 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:45 PM | Virginia Cavaliers @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons | — | 7–51 | Wake Forest -12.4 | Wake Forest -12.5 | -0.1 | Wake Forest -14.0 → Wake Forest -12.5 with us | Wake Forest -11.5 @53¢ · Virginia +11.5 @48¢ | 79% | 19–32 | 51 | 48 | +2.2 | |
| Sat 10/31 12:45 PM | Utah Utes @ Cincinnati Bearcats | modelB Utah Utes -6.5 @52¢ ✓priceA Cincinnati Bearcats +4.5 @43¢ ✗ | 49–25 | Utah -9.0 | Utah -7.0 | -2.0 | Utah -6.5 → Utah -7.0 with us | Cincinnati +7.5 @52¢ · Utah -6.5 @56¢ | 28% | 32–23 | 55 | 56 | -1.4 | |
| Sat 10/31 1:00 PM | New Mexico Lobos @ San Jose State Spartans | — | 21–16 | New Mexico -18.4 | New Mexico -14.5 | -3.9 | flat | San José State +14.5 @49¢ · New Mexico -14.5 @52¢ | 12% | 33–14 | 47 | 42 | +4.3 | |
| Sat 10/31 1:15 PM | South Carolina Gamecocks @ Oklahoma Sooners | — | 42–25 | Oklahoma -1.4 | Oklahoma -3.5 | -2.1 | Oklahoma -5.0 → Oklahoma -3.5 with us | Oklahoma -3.5 @49¢ · South Carolina +3.5 @52¢ | 54% | 23–25 | 48 | 44 | +3.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 1:15 PM | Nevada Wolf Pack @ UCLA Bruins | — | 0–27 | UCLA -21.6 | UCLA -23.0 | -1.4 | flat | UCLA -21.5 @51¢ · Nevada +23.5 @54¢ | 92% | 14–36 | 50 | 44 | +5.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 1:15 PM | Purdue Boilermakers @ Penn State Nittany Lions | priceA Purdue Boilermakers +7.5 @49¢ ✗ | 17–31 | Penn State -10.6 | Penn State -10.0 | +0.6 | Penn State -7.5 → Penn State -10.0 with us | Penn State -9.5 @55¢ · Purdue +10.5 @51¢ | 75% | 22–32 | 54 | 54 | -0.1 | |
| Sat 10/31 3:30 PM | Appalachian State Mountaineers @ Georgia Southern Eagles | — | 3–19 | Georgia Southern -4.7 | Georgia Southern -5.5 | -0.8 | flat | Georgia Southern -5.5 @53¢ · App State +5.5 @49¢ | 62% | 25–30 | 55 | 56 | -1.9 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:00 PM | Clemson Tigers @ Florida State Seminoles | — | 36–24 | Florida State -6.7 | Florida State -6.0 | +0.7 | flat | Florida State -5.5 @52¢ · Clemson +6.5 @52¢ | 67% | 23–29 | 52 | 50 | +2.6 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:00 PM | Washington State Cougars @ San Diego State Aztecs | — | 20–26 | San Diego State -4.4 | San Diego State -2.5 | +1.9 | San Diego State -3.0 → San Diego State -2.5 against | San Diego State -2.5 @52¢ · Washington State +2.5 @49¢ | 61% | 22–27 | 49 | 48 | +0.7 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:00 PM | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Iowa State Cyclones | priceA Iowa State Cyclones +7.5 @47¢ ✓ | 49–51 | Oklahoma State -8.7 | Oklahoma State -9.0 | +0.3 | Oklahoma State -9.5 → Oklahoma State -9.0 with us | Iowa State +9.5 @50¢ · Oklahoma State -9.5 @51¢ | 29% | 31–22 | 53 | 58 | -4.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:30 PM | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ Pittsburgh Panthers | modelA Pittsburgh Panthers -7.5 @52¢ ✓priceA Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.5 @50¢ ✗ | 11–34 | Pittsburgh -14.6 | Pittsburgh -7.5 | +7.1 | flat | Pittsburgh -7.5 @52¢ · Georgia Tech +7.5 @49¢ | 83% | 20–35 | 56 | 54 | +1.0 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:30 PM | Miami Hurricanes @ North Carolina Tar Heels | — | 38–35 | Miami -17.9 | Miami -14.0 | -3.9 | Miami -15.0 → Miami -14.0 against | North Carolina +14.5 @52¢ · Miami -13.5 @53¢ | 12% | 34–16 | 51 | 53 | -2.4 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:30 PM | Ohio State Buckeyes @ USC Trojans | modelB Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 @56¢ ✗priceB USC Trojans +4.5 @43¢ ✓ | 18–30 | Ohio State -13.1 | Ohio State -6.5 | -6.6 | Ohio State -7.0 → Ohio State -6.5 against | USC +6.5 @51¢ · Ohio State -6.5 @50¢ | 20% | 33–20 | 53 | 51 | +1.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:30 PM | Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Texas Longhorns | modelB Mississippi State Bulldogs +21.5 @55¢ ✗ | 3–31 | Texas -15.6 | Texas -20.0 | -4.4 | Texas -21.0 → Texas -20.0 with us | Texas -20.5 @51¢ · Mississippi State +20.5 @50¢ | 84% | 19–35 | 54 | 50 | +3.4 | |
| Sat 10/31 4:45 PM | Missouri Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks | — | 34–10 | Missouri -10.6 | Missouri -10.0 | -0.6 | flat | — · — | 25% | 31–21 | 52 | 49 | +3.3 | |
| Sat 10/31 5:00 PM | Washington Huskies @ Nebraska Cornhuskers | modelB Nebraska Cornhuskers -9.5 @48¢ ✗priceA Washington Huskies +7.5 @49¢ ✓ | 17–10 | Nebraska -13.7 | Nebraska -7.5 | +6.2 | Nebraska -9.0 → Nebraska -7.5 against | Nebraska -7.5 @51¢ · Washington +7.5 @50¢ | 81% | 18–32 | 51 | 50 | +0.2 | |
| Sat 10/31 5:00 PM | Army Black Knights @ Memphis Tigers | — | 22–49 | Memphis -6.8 | Memphis -6.0 | +0.8 | Memphis -6.5 → Memphis -6.0 against | Memphis -5.5 @51¢ · Army +6.5 @53¢ | 67% | 24–31 | 55 | 60 | -4.8 | |
| Sat 10/31 7:00 PM | Texas State Bobcats @ Boise State Broncos | — | 45–46 | Boise State -14.4 | Boise State -11.0 | +3.4 | flat | — · — | 82% | 23–37 | 60 | 64 | -4.2 | |
| Sat 10/31 7:30 PM | Northern Illinois Huskies @ UNLV Rebels | — | 24–31 | UNLV -24.6 | UNLV -22.5 | +2.1 | UNLV -24.0 → UNLV -22.5 against | UNLV -21.5 @51¢ · Northern Illinois +21.5 @50¢ | 94% | 13–38 | 52 | 54 | -2.5 | |
| Sat 10/31 8:00 PM | Oregon State Beavers @ Fresno State Bulldogs | — | 22–38 | Oregon State -5.1 | Oregon State -6.0 | +0.9 | Oregon State -6.5 → Oregon State -6.0 with us | Fresno State +6.5 @50¢ · Oregon State -5.5 @53¢ | 37% | 29–24 | 52 | 58 | -6.1 | |
| Tuesday, November 3 · Week 11 · 2 games | ||||||||||||||
| Tue 11/3 5:00 PM | Ohio Bobcats @ Akron Zips | modelB Ohio Bobcats -11.5 @53¢ ✗priceA Akron Zips +11.5 @45¢ ✓ | 28–20 | Ohio -18.8 | Ohio -14.0 | -4.8 | Ohio -12.0 → Ohio -14.0 with us | Akron +14.5 @54¢ · Ohio -13.5 @53¢ | 11% | 35–16 | 51 | 51 | -0.1 | |
| Tue 11/3 6:00 PM | Buffalo Bulls @ Miami (OH) RedHawks | — | 34–31 | Miami (OH) -5.9 | Miami (OH) -6.0 | -0.1 | Miami (OH) -6.5 → Miami (OH) -6.0 with us | Miami (OH) -5.5 @54¢ · Buffalo +6.5 @52¢ | 65% | 22–28 | 50 | 44 | +5.6 | |
| Wednesday, November 4 · Week 11 · 2 games | ||||||||||||||
| Wed 11/4 5:00 PM | Toledo Rockets @ Sacramento State Hornets | — | 20–17 | Toledo -26.4 | Toledo -25.0 | -1.4 | flat | Sacramento State +24.5 @50¢ · Toledo -24.5 @51¢ | 4% | 38–11 | 49 | 52 | -3.8 | |
| Wed 11/4 5:30 PM | Central Michigan Chippewas @ Eastern Michigan Eagles | — | 35–7 | Eastern Michigan -1.5 | Eastern Michigan -1.0 | +0.5 | Eastern Michigan -2.0 → Eastern Michigan -1.0 against | Eastern Michigan -1.5 @48¢ · Central Michigan +1.5 @53¢ | 54% | 24–25 | 49 | 44 | +4.3 | |
| Thursday, November 5 · Week 11 · 2 games | ||||||||||||||
| Thu 11/5 5:30 PM | UTSA Roadrunners @ Florida Atlantic Owls | priceA Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5 @46¢ ✓ | 29–60 | UTSA -7.6 | UTSA -6.5 | -1.1 | UTSA -7.0 → UTSA -6.5 against | Florida Atlantic +6.5 @46¢ · UTSA -6.5 @55¢ | 31% | 36–29 | 65 | 72 | -7.8 | |
| Thu 11/5 6:00 PM | James Madison Dukes @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles | modelB James Madison Dukes -14.5 @50¢ ✓ | 54–23 | James Madison -20.8 | James Madison -14.0 | -6.8 | James Madison -14.5 → James Madison -14.0 against | Southern Miss +14.5 @53¢ · James Madison -13.5 @53¢ | 9% | 38–17 | 56 | 58 | -1.8 | |
| Friday, November 6 · Week 11 · 5 games | ||||||||||||||
| Fri 11/6 5:00 PM | Virginia Tech Hokies @ SMU Mustangs | — | SMU -6.1 | SMU -6.0 | +0.1 | flat | SMU -5.5 @53¢ · Virginia Tech +6.5 @52¢ | 65% | 24–30 | 53 | 56 | -2.5 | ||
| Fri 11/6 5:30 PM | South Florida Bulls @ East Carolina Pirates | modelB South Florida Bulls +1.5 @51¢ now +2.5 | South Florida -3.9 | East Carolina -2.5 | -6.4 | East Carolina -1.5 → East Carolina -2.5 against | East Carolina -2.5 @51¢ · South Florida +2.5 @51¢ | 40% | 27–23 | 49 | 40 | +9.7 | ||
| Fri 11/6 6:00 PM | Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Illinois Fighting Illini | — | Nebraska -7.3 | Nebraska -4.5 | -2.8 | flat | Illinois +4.5 @50¢ · Nebraska -4.5 @51¢ | 32% | 29–22 | 51 | 50 | +0.6 | ||
| Fri 11/6 7:00 PM | New Mexico Lobos @ Nevada Wolf Pack | — | New Mexico -9.7 | New Mexico -10.5 | +0.8 | New Mexico -10.0 → New Mexico -10.5 against | Nevada +10.5 @54¢ · New Mexico -10.5 @47¢ | 27% | 28–19 | 47 | 38 | +8.9 | ||
| Fri 11/6 8:15 PM | TCU Horned Frogs @ Arizona Wildcats | priceA TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 @43¢ | Arizona -10.4 | Arizona -7.5 | +2.9 | Arizona -9.5 → Arizona -7.5 against | Arizona -7.5 @49¢ · TCU +7.5 @52¢ | 75% | 19–29 | 48 | 46 | +1.2 | ||
| Saturday, November 7 · Week 11 · 50 games | ||||||||||||||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | North Carolina Tar Heels @ UConn Huskies | priceA UConn Huskies +6.5 @45¢ | North Carolina -4.8 | North Carolina -7.0 | +2.2 | flat | UConn +7.5 @52¢ · North Carolina -6.5 @56¢ | 38% | 30–25 | 54 | 54 | -0.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | Florida State Seminoles @ Boston College Eagles | — | Florida State -5.1 | Florida State -6.5 | +1.4 | flat | Boston College +6.5 @50¢ · Florida State -6.5 @51¢ | 37% | 30–25 | 55 | 52 | +2.4 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | Texas Longhorns @ Missouri Tigers | — | Texas -4.7 | Texas -3.0 | -1.7 | flat | Missouri +3.5 @56¢ · Texas -2.5 @52¢ | 38% | 27–22 | 48 | 42 | +6.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | UCLA Bruins @ Minnesota Golden Gophers | modelB UCLA Bruins -6.5 @51¢ now -5.5 | UCLA -10.0 | UCLA -5.5 | -4.5 | UCLA -6.5 → UCLA -5.5 against | Minnesota +5.5 @52¢ · UCLA -5.5 @49¢ | 26% | 28–18 | 47 | 38 | +8.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | Iowa State Cyclones @ Baylor Bears | priceA Iowa State Cyclones +9.5 @47¢ | Baylor -10.9 | Baylor -10.0 | +0.9 | Baylor -9.5 → Baylor -10.0 with us | Baylor -9.5 @50¢ · Iowa State +10.5 @55¢ | 76% | 21–32 | 53 | 50 | +2.6 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | Tulsa Golden Hurricane @ Tulane Green Wave | — | Tulsa -2.0 | Tulsa -2.5 | +0.5 | Tulane -1.0 → Tulsa -2.5 against | Tulane +2.5 @50¢ · Tulsa -2.5 @51¢ | 45% | 27–25 | 52 | 50 | +2.4 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | BYU Cougars @ Utah Utes | — | Utah -6.0 | Utah -5.0 | +1.0 | flat | Utah -4.5 @49¢ · BYU +5.5 @54¢ | 65% | 23–29 | 52 | 48 | +3.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:00 AM | Clemson Tigers @ Syracuse Orange | — | Clemson -3.0 | Clemson -2.5 | -0.5 | Clemson -1.5 → Clemson -2.5 with us | Syracuse +2.5 @49¢ · Clemson -2.5 @52¢ | 42% | 27–24 | 51 | 50 | +0.6 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:30 AM | Duke Blue Devils @ NC State Wolfpack | — | Duke -7.7 | Duke -4.0 | -3.7 | Duke -5.0 → Duke -4.0 against | — · — | 31% | 31–23 | 54 | 51 | +2.9 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:30 AM | Maryland Terrapins @ Purdue Boilermakers | — | Purdue -8.2 | Purdue -6.0 | +2.2 | Purdue -6.5 → Purdue -6.0 against | Purdue -5.5 @50¢ · Maryland +6.5 @54¢ | 70% | 24–32 | 56 | 56 | -0.8 | ||
| Sat 11/7 10:45 AM | Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers | priceA Arkansas Razorbacks +9.5 @46¢ | Auburn -9.7 | Auburn -10.0 | -0.3 | Auburn -10.5 → Auburn -10.0 with us | Auburn -9.5 @55¢ · Arkansas +10.5 @51¢ | 73% | 21–31 | 52 | 54 | -1.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 11:00 AM | Old Dominion Monarchs @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | — | Coastal Carolina -8.9 | Coastal Carolina -6.5 | +2.4 | Coastal Carolina -7.0 → Coastal Carolina -6.5 against | Coastal Carolina -6.5 @52¢ · Old Dominion +6.5 @49¢ | 72% | 21–30 | 51 | 44 | +6.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 11:00 AM | Oklahoma State Cowboys @ Kansas State Wildcats | — | Oklahoma State -3.4 | Oklahoma State -6.5 | +3.1 | Oklahoma State -3.5 → Oklahoma State -6.5 against | Kansas State +6.5 @49¢ · Oklahoma State -6.5 @52¢ | 41% | 30–27 | 56 | 62 | -5.6 | ||
| Sat 11/7 12:30 PM | Georgia State Panthers @ Appalachian State Mountaineers | priceA Georgia State Panthers +3.5 @46¢ | App State -3.4 | App State -6.5 | -3.1 | App State -3.5 → App State -6.5 against | App State -6.5 @51¢ · Georgia State +6.5 @50¢ | 59% | 26–29 | 55 | 54 | +0.3 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:00 PM | Texas A&M Aggies @ South Carolina Gamecocks | priceA Texas A&M Aggies +6.5 @45¢ | South Carolina -4.2 | South Carolina -7.0 | -2.8 | flat | South Carolina -6.5 @53¢ · Texas A&M +7.5 @56¢ | 61% | 25–29 | 54 | 51 | +3.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:00 PM | Delaware Blue Hens @ Kennesaw State Owls | — | PK | Delaware -1.0 | +1.0 | Delaware -2.5 → Delaware -1.0 with us | Kennesaw State +1.5 @52¢ · Delaware -1.5 @50¢ | 50% | 28–28 | 55 | 57 | -1.9 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:00 PM | UL Monroe Warhawks @ Arkansas State Red Wolves | — | Arkansas State -17.7 | Arkansas State -14.5 | +3.2 | flat | Arkansas State -14.5 @52¢ · UL Monroe +14.5 @49¢ | 87% | 18–35 | 53 | 52 | +0.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers | — | LSU -4.7 | LSU -6.0 | -1.3 | flat | LSU -5.5 @54¢ · Alabama +6.5 @51¢ | 62% | 23–28 | 51 | 52 | -1.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Cincinnati Bearcats @ Houston Cougars | priceB Cincinnati Bearcats +10.5 @48¢ | Houston -11.2 | Houston -11.0 | +0.2 | flat | Houston -10.5 @51¢ · Cincinnati +11.5 @53¢ | 77% | 22–34 | 56 | 62 | -6.3 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Charlotte 49ers @ UAB Blazers | modelB UAB Blazers -10.5 @52¢ now -9.0priceA Charlotte 49ers +7.5 @46¢ | UAB -15.7 | UAB -9.0 | +6.7 | UAB -11.0 → UAB -9.0 against | UAB -9.5 @49¢ · Charlotte +9.5 @53¢ | 84% | 19–34 | 53 | 48 | +5.4 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Marshall Thundering Herd @ Georgia Southern Eagles | priceA Marshall Thundering Herd +9.5 @46¢ | Georgia Southern -10.7 | Georgia Southern -10.0 | +0.7 | flat | Georgia Southern -9.5 @53¢ · Marshall +10.5 @52¢ | 75% | 21–32 | 53 | 55 | -1.5 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Oregon Ducks @ Ohio State Buckeyes | modelA Ohio State Buckeyes -6.5 @57¢ now -7.5priceA Oregon Ducks +6.5 @44¢ | Ohio State -13.1 | Ohio State -7.5 | +5.6 | Ohio State -7.0 → Ohio State -7.5 with us | Ohio State -7.5 @51¢ · Oregon +7.5 @50¢ | 80% | 18–31 | 49 | 46 | +3.1 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Temple Owls @ Navy Midshipmen | priceA Temple Owls +7.5 @51¢ | Navy -8.2 | Navy -7.5 | +0.7 | Navy -7.0 → Navy -7.5 with us | Navy -7.5 @49¢ · Temple +7.5 @53¢ | 70% | 23–31 | 55 | 54 | +0.3 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Penn State Nittany Lions @ Washington Huskies | — | Penn State -0.6 | Washington -2.0 | -2.5 | flat | Washington -1.5 @53¢ · Penn State +2.5 @51¢ | 49% | 25–24 | 49 | 44 | +4.6 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:30 PM | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | — | Middle Tennessee -1.9 | Western Kentucky -1.0 | +2.9 | Middle Tennessee -1.0 → Western Kentucky -1.0 against | Middle Tennessee +1.5 @50¢ · Western Kentucky -1.5 @51¢ | 55% | 25–27 | 52 | 53 | -0.5 | ||
| Sat 11/7 1:45 PM | UCF Knights @ Kansas Jayhawks | — | Kansas -2.3 | Kansas -3.0 | -0.7 | flat | Kansas -2.5 @56¢ · UCF +3.5 @55¢ | 56% | 24–27 | 51 | 48 | +3.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:00 PM | Rice Owls @ North Texas Mean Green | — | North Texas -17.8 | North Texas -17.0 | +0.8 | flat | North Texas -16.5 @52¢ · Rice +17.5 @52¢ | 88% | 22–40 | 63 | 64 | -1.3 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:00 PM | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs @ Troy Trojans | priceA Troy Trojans +3.5 @44¢ | Louisiana Tech -6.0 | Louisiana Tech -4.5 | -1.5 | flat | Troy +4.5 @47¢ · Louisiana Tech -4.5 @54¢ | 35% | 27–22 | 49 | 48 | +1.5 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:00 PM | Northern Illinois Huskies @ San Jose State Spartans | modelB San Jose State Spartans -9.5 @54¢ now -10.0priceA Northern Illinois Huskies +6.5 @38¢ | San José State -15.9 | San José State -10.0 | +5.9 | flat | San José State -9.5 @52¢ · Northern Illinois +10.5 @52¢ | 85% | 16–32 | 47 | 52 | -4.6 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:00 PM | Missouri State Bears @ Florida International Panthers | modelA Florida International Panthers -4.0 now -5.0 | Florida International -11.2 | Florida International -5.0 | +6.2 | Florida International -4.0 → Florida International -5.0 with us | — · — | 77% | 20–31 | 51 | 50 | +0.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:15 PM | Vanderbilt Commodores @ Mississippi State Bulldogs | modelB Mississippi State Bulldogs -2.5 @57¢ now -3.0 | Mississippi State -11.9 | Mississippi State -3.0 | +8.9 | flat | Mississippi State -2.5 @54¢ · Vanderbilt +3.5 @56¢ | 78% | 22–34 | 57 | 48 | +8.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 2:15 PM | Rutgers Scarlet Knights @ Wisconsin Badgers | — | Wisconsin -18.3 | Wisconsin -17.5 | +0.8 | Wisconsin -17.0 → Wisconsin -17.5 with us | Wisconsin -17.5 @53¢ · Rutgers +17.5 @48¢ | 88% | 15–34 | 49 | 46 | +3.1 | ||
| Sat 11/7 3:00 PM | South Alabama Jaguars @ Louisiana Ragin Cajuns | modelB Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.5 | Louisiana Ragin -11.7 | Louisiana Ragin -7.5 | +4.2 | Louisiana Ragin -9.5 → Louisiana Ragin -7.5 against | — · — | 77% | 24–35 | 59 | 58 | +0.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 4:00 PM | Boise State Broncos @ Colorado State Rams | — | Boise State -18.9 | Boise State -18.0 | -0.9 | flat | — · — | 11% | 40–21 | 62 | 68 | -6.8 | ||
| Sat 11/7 4:15 PM | Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers | — | Tennessee -7.9 | Tennessee -6.5 | +1.4 | flat | Tennessee -6.5 @51¢ · Kentucky +6.5 @50¢ | 69% | 23–31 | 54 | 50 | +5.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:00 PM | Sam Houston State Bearkats @ Jacksonville State Gamecocks | — | Jacksonville State -17.3 | Jacksonville State -17.0 | +0.3 | flat | — · — | 87% | 15–32 | 48 | 48 | -0.8 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Georgia Bulldogs @ Ole Miss Rebels | — | Georgia -5.8 | Georgia -3.5 | -2.2 | flat | Ole Miss +3.5 @51¢ · Georgia -3.5 @50¢ | 36% | 31–25 | 56 | 56 | -0.5 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Air Force Falcons @ Army Black Knights | — | Army -3.8 | Army -3.0 | +0.8 | Army -3.5 → Army -3.0 against | Army -2.5 @56¢ · Air Force +3.5 @54¢ | 60% | 25–29 | 54 | 44 | +10.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Michigan State Spartans @ Michigan Wolverines | — | Michigan -11.6 | Michigan -14.0 | -2.4 | Michigan -13.0 → Michigan -14.0 against | Michigan -13.5 @53¢ · Michigan State +14.5 @52¢ | 77% | 17–28 | 45 | 40 | +5.4 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Miami Hurricanes @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish | priceB Miami Hurricanes +3.5 @38¢ | Notre Dame -3.8 | Notre Dame -7.5 | -3.8 | Notre Dame -6.0 → Notre Dame -7.5 against | Notre Dame -7.5 @48¢ · Miami +7.5 @53¢ | 60% | 26–30 | 56 | 55 | +0.8 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Colorado Buffaloes @ Arizona State Sun Devils | modelB Arizona State Sun Devils -2.5 @57¢ now -3.5 | Arizona State -7.1 | Arizona State -3.5 | +3.6 | flat | Arizona State -3.5 @50¢ · Colorado +3.5 @52¢ | 68% | 22–29 | 50 | 49 | +1.3 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Iowa Hawkeyes @ Northwestern Wildcats | — | Northwestern -3.5 | Northwestern -2.5 | +1.0 | Northwestern -1.5 → Northwestern -2.5 with us | Northwestern -2.5 @51¢ · Iowa +2.5 @50¢ | 59% | 21–25 | 46 | 46 | +0.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:30 PM | Louisville Cardinals @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets | — | Louisville -13.8 | Louisville -14.5 | +0.7 | flat | Georgia Tech +14.5 @50¢ · Louisville -14.5 @51¢ | 19% | 36–22 | 58 | 62 | -3.7 | ||
| Sat 11/7 5:45 PM | Oklahoma Sooners @ Florida Gators | — | Florida -4.6 | Florida -6.5 | -1.9 | Florida -7.0 → Florida -6.5 with us | Florida -6.5 @50¢ · Oklahoma +6.5 @51¢ | 62% | 23–27 | 50 | 46 | +4.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 6:00 PM | Liberty Flames @ New Mexico State Aggies | modelB Liberty Flames -16.5 @54¢ now -17.0 | Liberty -20.4 | Liberty -17.0 | -3.4 | flat | New Mexico State +17.5 @55¢ · Liberty -16.5 @51¢ | 9% | 34–14 | 49 | 46 | +2.1 | ||
| Sat 11/7 7:30 PM | West Virginia Mountaineers @ Texas Tech Red Raiders | — | Texas Tech -18.6 | Texas Tech -17.0 | +1.6 | flat | Texas Tech -16.5 @52¢ · West Virginia +17.5 @53¢ | 88% | 21–39 | 60 | 66 | -5.8 | ||
| Sat 11/7 7:30 PM | Fresno State Bulldogs @ Utah State Aggies | — | Fresno State -6.0 | Fresno State -2.5 | -3.5 | flat | Utah State +2.5 @52¢ · Fresno State -2.5 @49¢ | 35% | 27–21 | 48 | 42 | +6.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 7:30 PM | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors @ UTEP Miners | — | Hawai'i -11.6 | Hawai'i -9.5 | -2.1 | flat | UTEP +9.5 @51¢ · Hawai'i -9.5 @50¢ | 23% | 30–19 | 49 | 49 | +0.2 | ||
| Sat 11/7 8:30 PM | Wyoming Cowboys @ UNLV Rebels | — | UNLV -7.2 | UNLV -4.5 | +2.7 | UNLV -7.0 → UNLV -4.5 against | UNLV -4.5 @51¢ · Wyoming +4.5 @50¢ | 68% | 20–27 | 47 | 48 | -1.0 | ||
| Sat 11/7 8:30 PM | Texas State Bobcats @ Oregon State Beavers | — | Oregon State -8.8 | Oregon State -6.5 | +2.3 | flat | Oregon State -6.5 @49¢ · Texas State +6.5 @52¢ | 71% | 27–35 | 62 | 71 | -8.8 | ||
Lines name the favorite (e.g. SEA -3.5 means Seattle favored by 3.5). Δ (home) is how many points more the model likes the home side than the market does; negative means it likes the road side more. Line move is our first captured Pinnacle line → the current one, and whether the market has drifted toward the model's side. Kalshi spread shows the closest ladder rung and ask price for each side to cover. Flags are logged plays with the line and price at the time they were flagged: model = our projection disagrees with the market line; price = a Kalshi rung priced better than the market line implies (its rung is deliberately off the line, so only its ask price moves). A = best play, B = lean (measured, not bet). "now" shows the current market line when it has moved since the flag — the edge a follower gets is the difference.